Amesbury Lake Armadillos v. Wings of Pastrami
Any team with Peyton and All Day Peterson can be scary in the playoffs. Either player can simply “turn it on” and go crazy with a 50 points game. But the truth is, neither of them has lived up to their legendary status as of late. AP has topped 30 once since Week 1 and Peyton hasn’t topped 40 points in over a month. Is this the week all things come together for the “Ace and Gary” of fantasy football?
The WOP’s lived to fight another day thanks to the winning the “TUMS Game of the Week” in round 1. This team finds a way to at least score a decent average each week, even without a #1 player in terms of points at any position and only 2 players that break the top 10. They have broken the elusive 200 point barrier twice this year, but somewhere between 130-150 is more likely from week to week. Will that be enough in the Semifinals?
QBs
Peyton Manning v. Kurt Warner
Mr. Consistent vs. Captain Stubble. Peyton will NOT be benched in the 2nd half. Peyton will NOT score less than 30 points. Peyton will NOT be hurt in the 1st quarter. See what I’m doing here? It’s called reverse psychology. It works wonders. Warner struggled through his worst game of the season; fumbles, INTs and never really getting in a groove with his WRs. Expect much better things against the Detroit Kittens.
Prediction-
Manning will explode for 325 yards and 3 TDs – before the 4th quarter. Warner will have fun playing this D/ST – he’ll get the bonus and 2 TDs.
RBs
Adrian Peterson/Beanie Wells v. Frank Gore/Pierre Thomas
Peterson is a “gimmie” for a real good game, but not a great game any more. He faces a CAR team that is in the bottom 10 against the run. AP should be able to do well once again. Wells isn’t the #1 guy in ARI, but don’t tell him that. A slaughtering should be in turn for him this week.
Gore got rid of any ill will his owners my have had for him lately with his 2nd best effort all season. Now facing a brick wall of PHI D/ST, he can only go down from here. Thomas is the best at being average. He has topped 20 points only once in the past 8 weeks, but has also posted less than 10 points only once in that same span. Going up to a stout DAL run defense, it should expect another so-so game.
Prediction – This is where ALA can win this matchup. Both Peterson and Wells give the gift of great games; Peterson with the bonus and a TD, Wells with 80 yards and a TD. Gore and Thomas combine for a Grinch like 23 points total. Bah Humbug!
WR
Kenny Britt/Pierre Garcon/Roy Williams v. Randy Moss/Calvin Johnson/TJ Housh
It sounds like a French Guy and 2 Country Western singers versus some of the biggest WR names of the Preseason. But Britt and Garcon have vaulted their way up the charts and Roy Williams has even showed up a little bit this season. Moss and Megatron still have the ability to melt faces. But actually doing it has been a little tougher. TJ Housh might as well John Q Average this season.
Prediction – The law firm of Britt, Garcon, and Williams doesn’t do much; no bonuses and 1 TD between them. Moss comes back in a big way to shut everyone the hell up. Expect the bonus or 2 TDs. Johnson will have trouble getting to the end zone, but 80 yards on 6 catches should be expected. Housh? Who cares?
TE
Visanthe Shiancoe v. Greg Olson
Both TEs struggled last week. Shiancoe looks to have an injury and Olson looks to have started being doubled team. Both play teams that are tough against the pass and don’t give much to TEs.
Prediction – Shiancoe will score a cheap TD after a long Peterson run, but don’t expect more than 25 yards. Olson will get a few catches, think 6. And some yardage, think 55. But no TDs are in the cards this week.
D/ST
Minn Vikings v. NY Jets
The Nordic Plunder-ers face a Carolina team that never seems to reach 300 yards or 20 points in a game. They might be lucky to get half of that against the Vikings. The J-E-T-S have been on a role lately, scoring 41, 26, and 32 points in the past 3 weeks. Versus an ATL team that might be getting Ryan and Turner back this week, getting 20+ might be tough.
Prediction – Vikings show Matt Moore why he should stick to being a #3 QB. They will force 5 turnovers and get plenty of points, upwards of 30. NY Jets will go back to being okay – between 12-18 points.
K
Rob Bironas v. Matt Prater
Bironas brought the goods last week with 19 points and should see no reason NOT to grab double digit points again. After weeks and weeks of decentness, Prater petered out. Look for a bounce back at home against the Raiders.
Prediction – Bironas could kick with his opposite foot and still get 10+ points this week. So, yeah, he’ll get 10+. Prater kicks his way off the Island of Misfit Kickers with a double digit performance himself.
Overall prediction -
Both teams kinda sucked it up last week and came away with wins. This week is gonna be the same thing. Met with average matchups and strange, late-season variables, neither team is gonna light it up with a 200 point week. The difference though will be a strong effort from the WOPs WR corp that was drafted to be studs. They show up this week and keep the team flying closer and closer to the sun. Wings of Pastrami - 147 to Amesbury Lake Armadillos 139
Thursday, December 17, 2009
Wednesday, December 16, 2009
Semifinal matchup - Legend of Bo vs. Avalon Creek Assassins
Legend of Bo vs. Avalon Creek Assassins
From 1860 – 1865 this country embarked a conflict so fierce and so personal it would take decades to even start to repair the wounds. This semi-final matchup might very well inflict the same long term hurt. Brother versus brother; it gets no more serious than that. The winner? A chance at the league championship. The loser? Months of mental torture at the hands of a close loved one. Both teams can look at the past 13 weeks and see glimpses of a championship caliber team. But who matches up best when it counts the most?
QB
Aaron Rodgers v. Matt Schaub
One is coming off their worst week. The other is fresh off one of the best. Rodgers faces a PITT D/ST that would have been scary in week 1. Without Hand and Shoulders Troy P, they have looked at best, average. Rodger should have no problem with this matchup Schaub was supposed to be hurt last week. Nope. Look for another school yard game with lots of points
Prediction – Rodgers bounces back in a big way, at least 40 points. If Schaub doesn’t get 50, the ACA might be pouting a little bit
RB
MJD/A Fosters v. Chris Johnson
Both teams find themselves at a weird spot this late in the playoffs; without a decent #2 RB. Of Bo has chosen to reach into the depths of waive wire. ACA just said screw it. MJD has been lacking in the bonus department for a while, not since week 10. Foster is the “Flavor of the Week” in Hou, but facing a STL D/ST, he’ll be steady. What more can be said about Chris Johnson? He’s good.
Prediction – MJD scores 2 TDs but again misses the bonus. Foster is average, 60 yards, but nothing to write home about. Johnson does what he do – 140 total yards and a TD.
WR
Boldin/Jackson/Steve Smith (Car) vs. Andre Johnson/Reggie Wayne
The past few weeks, the trio of WR from Of Bo have been better and better. That trend should continue with good matchups for everyone. ACA, once again, bucks convention, and goes with a less than need set of players. But that duo is hard to beat, even with Reggie doing his best Houdini act lately.
Prediction - Boldin explodes for a bonus and a 2 TDs. The other do less impressive, but still okay; 75 yards apiece. Johnson and Wayne show up big this week, bonuses and TDs for all!
TEs
Kevin Boss v. J Finley/Brent Celek
Kevin showed it was he, not Mona or Tony that was the boss last week. He brought the goods against the WASH D/ST last time (week 1) and should again. Finley is a high risk / high yield play. A risky move that could pay off when your opponent has the QB throwing to him. Celek should have no problem against a soft SF D/ST.
Prediction – Boss will get the yardage and the catches, but no TD when facing an improving WASH D/ST. Finley surprises but is no way a good replacement as a #3 WR. Celek, though, makes up for it with a big game, close to bonus and a TD.
D/ST
Chiefs v. Giants
Even facing an awful Cleveland team, the K.C. D/ST is a bold choice. The team is capable of a good game, but not great. A home game for the Chiefs makes the decision rather good overall. NY Giants were supposed to be the savior for the ACA team back when they got them as a buy low. They team never turned it around, gave up 45 points last week and now face a rather hot offense in the Redskins.
Prediction – Kansas City shows up big and keeps the yardage and points low. But the INTs or fumbles never come. The Giants do just the opposite, lots of yards and points, but also lots of fumbles and INTs.
K’s
Has a kicker even the difference in a fantasy playoff matchup? Josh Brown plays for an awful offense with a new QB that could be worse than a 65 year old Jim Everett. Hartley gets to kick for one of the highest octane O’s in the past 10 years. Hmm? Who does better?
Prediction – Josh Brown sucks. I hate that traitor. No wonder he doesn’t get more than 4 points. Hartley will get a few XPs until the 4th quarter when N.O. stops trying and just lets him kicks FGs. He’ll break 10 points easy.
OVERALL PREDICTION -
On paper, the ACA should run, not walk to the Championship game. But they actually do have play the games still. Both teams have great matchups and poor matchups. The difference maker will come down to how Schaub, Finley and the Giants D/ST. Those players should do enough over their counterparts to provide a buffer in the points. Sorry Legend of Bo, the storybook season ends here.
Avalon Creek Assassins 152 – Legend of Bo - 137
From 1860 – 1865 this country embarked a conflict so fierce and so personal it would take decades to even start to repair the wounds. This semi-final matchup might very well inflict the same long term hurt. Brother versus brother; it gets no more serious than that. The winner? A chance at the league championship. The loser? Months of mental torture at the hands of a close loved one. Both teams can look at the past 13 weeks and see glimpses of a championship caliber team. But who matches up best when it counts the most?
QB
Aaron Rodgers v. Matt Schaub
One is coming off their worst week. The other is fresh off one of the best. Rodgers faces a PITT D/ST that would have been scary in week 1. Without Hand and Shoulders Troy P, they have looked at best, average. Rodger should have no problem with this matchup Schaub was supposed to be hurt last week. Nope. Look for another school yard game with lots of points
Prediction – Rodgers bounces back in a big way, at least 40 points. If Schaub doesn’t get 50, the ACA might be pouting a little bit
RB
MJD/A Fosters v. Chris Johnson
Both teams find themselves at a weird spot this late in the playoffs; without a decent #2 RB. Of Bo has chosen to reach into the depths of waive wire. ACA just said screw it. MJD has been lacking in the bonus department for a while, not since week 10. Foster is the “Flavor of the Week” in Hou, but facing a STL D/ST, he’ll be steady. What more can be said about Chris Johnson? He’s good.
Prediction – MJD scores 2 TDs but again misses the bonus. Foster is average, 60 yards, but nothing to write home about. Johnson does what he do – 140 total yards and a TD.
WR
Boldin/Jackson/Steve Smith (Car) vs. Andre Johnson/Reggie Wayne
The past few weeks, the trio of WR from Of Bo have been better and better. That trend should continue with good matchups for everyone. ACA, once again, bucks convention, and goes with a less than need set of players. But that duo is hard to beat, even with Reggie doing his best Houdini act lately.
Prediction - Boldin explodes for a bonus and a 2 TDs. The other do less impressive, but still okay; 75 yards apiece. Johnson and Wayne show up big this week, bonuses and TDs for all!
TEs
Kevin Boss v. J Finley/Brent Celek
Kevin showed it was he, not Mona or Tony that was the boss last week. He brought the goods against the WASH D/ST last time (week 1) and should again. Finley is a high risk / high yield play. A risky move that could pay off when your opponent has the QB throwing to him. Celek should have no problem against a soft SF D/ST.
Prediction – Boss will get the yardage and the catches, but no TD when facing an improving WASH D/ST. Finley surprises but is no way a good replacement as a #3 WR. Celek, though, makes up for it with a big game, close to bonus and a TD.
D/ST
Chiefs v. Giants
Even facing an awful Cleveland team, the K.C. D/ST is a bold choice. The team is capable of a good game, but not great. A home game for the Chiefs makes the decision rather good overall. NY Giants were supposed to be the savior for the ACA team back when they got them as a buy low. They team never turned it around, gave up 45 points last week and now face a rather hot offense in the Redskins.
Prediction – Kansas City shows up big and keeps the yardage and points low. But the INTs or fumbles never come. The Giants do just the opposite, lots of yards and points, but also lots of fumbles and INTs.
K’s
Has a kicker even the difference in a fantasy playoff matchup? Josh Brown plays for an awful offense with a new QB that could be worse than a 65 year old Jim Everett. Hartley gets to kick for one of the highest octane O’s in the past 10 years. Hmm? Who does better?
Prediction – Josh Brown sucks. I hate that traitor. No wonder he doesn’t get more than 4 points. Hartley will get a few XPs until the 4th quarter when N.O. stops trying and just lets him kicks FGs. He’ll break 10 points easy.
OVERALL PREDICTION -
On paper, the ACA should run, not walk to the Championship game. But they actually do have play the games still. Both teams have great matchups and poor matchups. The difference maker will come down to how Schaub, Finley and the Giants D/ST. Those players should do enough over their counterparts to provide a buffer in the points. Sorry Legend of Bo, the storybook season ends here.
Avalon Creek Assassins 152 – Legend of Bo - 137
Thursday, December 10, 2009
Round 1 Match up - Cottonwood Hills Pricks vs. Wings of Pastrami
Cottonwood Hills Pricks versus Wings of Pastrami
The Pricks have annoyed teams with a core of studs unmatched by any team this year. Now the 2nd highest scoring team in the league, they have not scored under 155 in the past 5 weeks after “The Trade” and have high expectations for the playoffs. The WOPs have flown close to sun a few times with big scores and lots of trades. Overall, thier scoring has been middle of the pack due to some under performing “big guns” and few injuries. Can they bring all the ingredients together to make a playoff upset sandwich?
QBs
Drew Brees v. Kurt Warner
The key to the Pricks success will hinge on Brees. No matter how many other players on his team do their job, how Brees does each week will determine how long the Pricks playoff run lasts. This week versus a beat up and lost looking ATL D/ST, Brees should flourish. The only worry is that a blow out could mean a 4th quarter benching. Anything less than the bonus and 2 TDs would be bad news. Kurt “Captain Stubble” or “My wife is now a hottie” Warner should be considered an elite QB; when he isn’t being an old man and sitting on the bench. Though he didn’t do to well against a SF team in week 1, Warner has looked great and played great and should be his old self – expect yardage close to a bonus and at least 2 tds.
Prediction – Brees does his thing; you can’t stop him, you can only hope to contain him. Not happening this week. He’ll get 50+ points. Warner makes things happen as well and comes close to matching Brees with 45+ plus himself.
RBs
Steven Jackson/Rashard Mendenhall v. Frank Gore/Pierre Thomas
All SJAX has done is rattle off 5 bonuses in 6 games, even with a messed up spinal cord. Tennessee D/ST could present a small resistance, but what other choice does St. Louis have then to shove Steven down their throat? It’s a rhetorical questions, but umm, none. Mendenhall has looked great and faces the weakest of weak this week versus Cleveland, who apparently still has a team. The weather outside, and around, Cleveland is frightful with snowstorms and crazy wind. And the Steelers are going with a banged up Hines Ward. Could this mean 20+ carries again for Mendenhall? We’ll see. Gore and Thomas have been the definition of average these past weeks. Sure they get a TD and some catches, but neither has hit the bonus in at least 3 weeks and both are in the middle of confusing game plans within their offenses. Gore faces a team in ARI that stuffed AP last week and Frenchy is going against an ATL team that you have mucho success through the air, not the ground.
Prediction – SJAX once again hits the bonus in a big way but doesn’t find the endzone. Mendenhall will have trouble in the slop in Cleveland. He want get the bonus and will have a fumble lost to boot. Gore will surprise as a new game plan in SF will help him get back to normal; no bonus but a TD and lots of catches, think close to 20 points. Frenchy will get a score thanks to some garbage time in the Dirty South. He’ll get his normal 12 points.
WRs
Larry Fitzgerald/Sidney Rice/Robert Meachem v. Randy Moss/Calvin Johnson/TJ Housh
Both squads boast a strong trio that any week can put together 90 points between them. The Pricks rely on some new, hot players but also count on their first round pick, Fitzgerald, to bring the pain each week, and he usually does. Meachem has been hot, but will that last in an offense that has so many weapons? The same could be said of Rice Rice Baby, though he has fast become a Farve Favorite®. WOPs have a strong name recognition group that has underwhelmed as a unit in the past month. Moss has had a great game, Megatron has had a great game, and even TJ has. But all three once? It could happen given the matchups, but it hard to count on.
Prediction -
If the WOPs have any edge overall, it’s at this position. Moss and Johnson both hit the bonus and TD jackpot, but TJ “Whose Your Momma” falls short once again, but better than his last 3 weeks. Larry Fitzgerald gets its going with a big game, but teams suffocate Rice and Meachem, and neither of them get more than 12 points a piece.
TEs
Jason Witten v. Greg Olson
Looking like a bust for the first 10 weeks of the season, Witten has once again shown why he needs to be considered elite. 2 huge back to back games give him some “Uncle Mo” going into the playoffs and he strikes TE Fantasy gold facing the SD Chargers who have given the 3rd most TDs to TE this season. Olson was in the same boat earlier in the year; up the river to “Bustville.” He has been a nice safety valve for Cutler the past 2 months, but has no bonuses and hasn’t scored in over a month. So while he's coming off a miserable week 13, he faces the Packers who have allowed the second-most touchdowns to tight ends (7).
Predication –
Witten will actually get shut down to an extent; he’ll grab a TD but will lack in yardage and get around 13 points. Olsen does what he does every week; above average yardage, a handful of catches, no TDs and around 8 points.
Ks
Dan Carpenter v. Matt Prater
Both of these kickers are top notch; neither has missed in over 2 months. Carpenter gets a lot of chances to due to MIAMI team that stalls in the red zone. Prater gets his because of the turnovers the Denver D/ST creates.
Prediction – Dan the Man should see at least 8 points and maybe upwards of 12. Prater is kicking indoors for a team that has been clicking on offense lately; expect another double digit game, like 12-15 points.
D/STs
NO Saints v. NY Jets
The Saints have turned things around big time this year. Though they can be scored on a lot and teams end up doing some damage in garbage time, this unit generally can force the QB into some picks and has the most TDs in the NFL. The Jets are coming off back to back big games from their D/ST and now face one of the worst teams in the NFL, the Tampa Bay Bucs, and a rookie QB. Good things should happen.
Prediction –
“Who ‘Dat?” brings a solid score to the table thanks to Chris Redman having to throw all day. Most of their points, around 19 or so, will come from INTs, not low scores. The Jets make a super sonic noise with a big game. They should grab a bunch of pirate booty, at least 2 INTs, 2 fumbles, and will drop a 25+ point game this week.
FINAL PREDICTION
For not being a #1 seed, the Pricks sure are scary. They boast above-average to great players in each slot. You won’t be able to beat them by scoring 125 points and hoping they falter. You simply have to outscore them. And it won’t happen this week. While WOPs can bring the goods with a few players, they’ll need a bonus from everyone and their mom to make a score of 180+ happen. Cottonwood Hills Pricks -189 to Wings of Pastrami - 165
The Pricks have annoyed teams with a core of studs unmatched by any team this year. Now the 2nd highest scoring team in the league, they have not scored under 155 in the past 5 weeks after “The Trade” and have high expectations for the playoffs. The WOPs have flown close to sun a few times with big scores and lots of trades. Overall, thier scoring has been middle of the pack due to some under performing “big guns” and few injuries. Can they bring all the ingredients together to make a playoff upset sandwich?
QBs
Drew Brees v. Kurt Warner
The key to the Pricks success will hinge on Brees. No matter how many other players on his team do their job, how Brees does each week will determine how long the Pricks playoff run lasts. This week versus a beat up and lost looking ATL D/ST, Brees should flourish. The only worry is that a blow out could mean a 4th quarter benching. Anything less than the bonus and 2 TDs would be bad news. Kurt “Captain Stubble” or “My wife is now a hottie” Warner should be considered an elite QB; when he isn’t being an old man and sitting on the bench. Though he didn’t do to well against a SF team in week 1, Warner has looked great and played great and should be his old self – expect yardage close to a bonus and at least 2 tds.
Prediction – Brees does his thing; you can’t stop him, you can only hope to contain him. Not happening this week. He’ll get 50+ points. Warner makes things happen as well and comes close to matching Brees with 45+ plus himself.
RBs
Steven Jackson/Rashard Mendenhall v. Frank Gore/Pierre Thomas
All SJAX has done is rattle off 5 bonuses in 6 games, even with a messed up spinal cord. Tennessee D/ST could present a small resistance, but what other choice does St. Louis have then to shove Steven down their throat? It’s a rhetorical questions, but umm, none. Mendenhall has looked great and faces the weakest of weak this week versus Cleveland, who apparently still has a team. The weather outside, and around, Cleveland is frightful with snowstorms and crazy wind. And the Steelers are going with a banged up Hines Ward. Could this mean 20+ carries again for Mendenhall? We’ll see. Gore and Thomas have been the definition of average these past weeks. Sure they get a TD and some catches, but neither has hit the bonus in at least 3 weeks and both are in the middle of confusing game plans within their offenses. Gore faces a team in ARI that stuffed AP last week and Frenchy is going against an ATL team that you have mucho success through the air, not the ground.
Prediction – SJAX once again hits the bonus in a big way but doesn’t find the endzone. Mendenhall will have trouble in the slop in Cleveland. He want get the bonus and will have a fumble lost to boot. Gore will surprise as a new game plan in SF will help him get back to normal; no bonus but a TD and lots of catches, think close to 20 points. Frenchy will get a score thanks to some garbage time in the Dirty South. He’ll get his normal 12 points.
WRs
Larry Fitzgerald/Sidney Rice/Robert Meachem v. Randy Moss/Calvin Johnson/TJ Housh
Both squads boast a strong trio that any week can put together 90 points between them. The Pricks rely on some new, hot players but also count on their first round pick, Fitzgerald, to bring the pain each week, and he usually does. Meachem has been hot, but will that last in an offense that has so many weapons? The same could be said of Rice Rice Baby, though he has fast become a Farve Favorite®. WOPs have a strong name recognition group that has underwhelmed as a unit in the past month. Moss has had a great game, Megatron has had a great game, and even TJ has. But all three once? It could happen given the matchups, but it hard to count on.
Prediction -
If the WOPs have any edge overall, it’s at this position. Moss and Johnson both hit the bonus and TD jackpot, but TJ “Whose Your Momma” falls short once again, but better than his last 3 weeks. Larry Fitzgerald gets its going with a big game, but teams suffocate Rice and Meachem, and neither of them get more than 12 points a piece.
TEs
Jason Witten v. Greg Olson
Looking like a bust for the first 10 weeks of the season, Witten has once again shown why he needs to be considered elite. 2 huge back to back games give him some “Uncle Mo” going into the playoffs and he strikes TE Fantasy gold facing the SD Chargers who have given the 3rd most TDs to TE this season. Olson was in the same boat earlier in the year; up the river to “Bustville.” He has been a nice safety valve for Cutler the past 2 months, but has no bonuses and hasn’t scored in over a month. So while he's coming off a miserable week 13, he faces the Packers who have allowed the second-most touchdowns to tight ends (7).
Predication –
Witten will actually get shut down to an extent; he’ll grab a TD but will lack in yardage and get around 13 points. Olsen does what he does every week; above average yardage, a handful of catches, no TDs and around 8 points.
Ks
Dan Carpenter v. Matt Prater
Both of these kickers are top notch; neither has missed in over 2 months. Carpenter gets a lot of chances to due to MIAMI team that stalls in the red zone. Prater gets his because of the turnovers the Denver D/ST creates.
Prediction – Dan the Man should see at least 8 points and maybe upwards of 12. Prater is kicking indoors for a team that has been clicking on offense lately; expect another double digit game, like 12-15 points.
D/STs
NO Saints v. NY Jets
The Saints have turned things around big time this year. Though they can be scored on a lot and teams end up doing some damage in garbage time, this unit generally can force the QB into some picks and has the most TDs in the NFL. The Jets are coming off back to back big games from their D/ST and now face one of the worst teams in the NFL, the Tampa Bay Bucs, and a rookie QB. Good things should happen.
Prediction –
“Who ‘Dat?” brings a solid score to the table thanks to Chris Redman having to throw all day. Most of their points, around 19 or so, will come from INTs, not low scores. The Jets make a super sonic noise with a big game. They should grab a bunch of pirate booty, at least 2 INTs, 2 fumbles, and will drop a 25+ point game this week.
FINAL PREDICTION
For not being a #1 seed, the Pricks sure are scary. They boast above-average to great players in each slot. You won’t be able to beat them by scoring 125 points and hoping they falter. You simply have to outscore them. And it won’t happen this week. While WOPs can bring the goods with a few players, they’ll need a bonus from everyone and their mom to make a score of 180+ happen. Cottonwood Hills Pricks -189 to Wings of Pastrami - 165
Round 1 Match up - Amesbury Lake Armadillos v. Afton Creek Cookie Monsters
Amesbury Lake Armadillos vs. Afton Creek Cookie Monsters
This matchup features the # 1 seed that is Ninth in the league in points scored and has lost 3 in a row versus a team that started 0-4 but won 4 of its last 6 with a nice weekly average. Even with a 10 point bonus for the Armadillos, could an upset be popping its head out? Let’s take a look.
QBs
Peyton Manning v. Ben Roethlisberger
The ultimate fantasy QB goes head to head with a signal caller who has been up and down all year. Manning ranks as the #1 at his position, but has slowed down as of late. No bonuses in his last 3 games, Manning now faces a Denver D/ST who can be thrown on. Can he show up big in Round1? Roethlisberger has been high (60 points) and low (16 points) and his matchup is sugary sweet versus an awful Cleveland team. Expect big things again.
Prediction – Manning gets back to normal with a bonus and a few tds. Guess what though? Big Ben doesn’t; not with bad weather, no Hines Ward and probably a huge lead by halftime.
RBs
Adrian Peterson v. DeAngelo Willams / Thomas Jones
When you only have 1 RB, it might as well be AP. Peterson has not been himself lately; he is only running on 3.0 yards per rush. Peterson will get to run on CIN D/ST who is without their top run stuffer. Good things should happen. Jones has been pretty good after people thought he might be part of a time share all year. He should be expected to hit a bonus or grab a TD each game. D Williams was hurt last week but is also can do some damage against the right team; NE D/ST can be run on.
Prediction – Peterson runs like a man possessed, bum ankle and all. He’ll get a bonus and a TD. Williams won’t get all the carries and it will show in the box score. Jones though should be able to showcase his skills since Sanchez wont there and TB sucks. He’ll get a bonus and some TDs as well.
WRs
Roy Williams/Nate Burleson/Pierre Garcon/Jeremy Maclin v. Roddy White/Devin Thomas/Mario Manningham
Though this group may not list any future Hall of Famers, it does boast a few players who have garnered a few big games and show up huge when the match up is right. The strength for the Armadillos is the strong play of Garcon, Manning’s new favorite target, and Burleson/Williams when they decide to show up. Given the matchups, all should get close to a bonus. Roddy White is forced to catch passes from Chris Redman, which doesn’t seem like a good way to score points, but it didn’t hurt last week. With a ATL team that is sure to be down and maybe without Burner Turner, White should expect another big game against the Big Easy (he scored 29 last time against them.) The rest of the WR corps for the Cookie Monsters is a crumbly mess; they get enough targets to be starter worthy, but who knows.
Prediction – The 4 pack of WRs for the Armadillos does some damage, with Garcon and grabbing the bonus and continuing to be a late season stud. Williams and Burleson come close to the bonus but things are too spread in their respective offensives to be that greedy. Roddy White will get the bonus, but the other WRs wont clear 15 points combined.
TEs
Visanthe Shiancoe v. Dallas Clark
When the season started, no one knew how to say “Visanthe Shiancoe” let alone think he’d be starting the playoffs. When he score, which is often, it’s awesome. When he doesn’t, it’s not much to look at. He gets red zone targets, and those are what truly matters for TEs as the bonus is hard to come by. What else can you say about D Clark? Probably the most consistent TE in the league, the only time he suffers is when teams make him priority #1 to stop, but that’s hard to do when the Colts have so many other weapons. He plays Denver this week, which I the second best team against TEs. So who will the battle?
Prediction – No reason Shiancoe shouldn’t get his TD and some catches, expect a game with points north of 12 points. Clark will get stymied by the Broncos D/ST and disappoint his owners in round 1; anything over 8 points would be “real nice, Clark” (make an okay hand signal when you say this.)
D/STs
Minnesota Vikings v. Cincin Bengals
A strange, but very important, battle since these teams plays each other this week. Minnesota has been great all year as well. They never had that AMAZING 40+ point game and have scored negative points twice as well, but no group can be counted on for a strong showing week in and week out like this squad. The Bengals have been a nice surprise this year, scoring 10+ points in 12 of 13 games. But without Odom and facing Farve’s crew on the turf, it might get ugly.
Prediction – Cincinnati keeps this one close and low scoring; until the 2nd half. And then things get ugly. Yards and points will pile up, though 2 picks from Farve seems likely too; expect around 12 points. Minnesota fumbles sacks and picks its way to big game at a home. Anything less than 18 points would be disappointing.
Ks
Ryan Longwell v Rob Bironas
An interesting starting note – Longwell will be kicking against Cincinnati who the Cookie Monsters will be deploying as their D/ST. Points for Longwell means less points for Bengals D/ST. Hard to know who to cheer for. Bironas has been a big benefactor when the Titans were on their winning streak. He’ll be good again as the Titans roll again this week
Prediction - Longwell should be good for at least 10 points, much to the dismay of the Cookie Monsters. And Bironas? Kicking against the Rams? Indoors? Expect 10 plus point as well.
Final prediction –
It’s gonna be close. Each team has studs hat need to show and question marks that need to be answered. It’s hard to bet against a team with Manning and AP, but the Monsters do have some studs that can ring your bell as well. In the end, a big game by the Vikings D/ST and a surprise big game from Burleson is the difference maker.
Amesbury Lake Armadillos – 156 to Afton Creek Cookie Monsters - 142
This matchup features the # 1 seed that is Ninth in the league in points scored and has lost 3 in a row versus a team that started 0-4 but won 4 of its last 6 with a nice weekly average. Even with a 10 point bonus for the Armadillos, could an upset be popping its head out? Let’s take a look.
QBs
Peyton Manning v. Ben Roethlisberger
The ultimate fantasy QB goes head to head with a signal caller who has been up and down all year. Manning ranks as the #1 at his position, but has slowed down as of late. No bonuses in his last 3 games, Manning now faces a Denver D/ST who can be thrown on. Can he show up big in Round1? Roethlisberger has been high (60 points) and low (16 points) and his matchup is sugary sweet versus an awful Cleveland team. Expect big things again.
Prediction – Manning gets back to normal with a bonus and a few tds. Guess what though? Big Ben doesn’t; not with bad weather, no Hines Ward and probably a huge lead by halftime.
RBs
Adrian Peterson v. DeAngelo Willams / Thomas Jones
When you only have 1 RB, it might as well be AP. Peterson has not been himself lately; he is only running on 3.0 yards per rush. Peterson will get to run on CIN D/ST who is without their top run stuffer. Good things should happen. Jones has been pretty good after people thought he might be part of a time share all year. He should be expected to hit a bonus or grab a TD each game. D Williams was hurt last week but is also can do some damage against the right team; NE D/ST can be run on.
Prediction – Peterson runs like a man possessed, bum ankle and all. He’ll get a bonus and a TD. Williams won’t get all the carries and it will show in the box score. Jones though should be able to showcase his skills since Sanchez wont there and TB sucks. He’ll get a bonus and some TDs as well.
WRs
Roy Williams/Nate Burleson/Pierre Garcon/Jeremy Maclin v. Roddy White/Devin Thomas/Mario Manningham
Though this group may not list any future Hall of Famers, it does boast a few players who have garnered a few big games and show up huge when the match up is right. The strength for the Armadillos is the strong play of Garcon, Manning’s new favorite target, and Burleson/Williams when they decide to show up. Given the matchups, all should get close to a bonus. Roddy White is forced to catch passes from Chris Redman, which doesn’t seem like a good way to score points, but it didn’t hurt last week. With a ATL team that is sure to be down and maybe without Burner Turner, White should expect another big game against the Big Easy (he scored 29 last time against them.) The rest of the WR corps for the Cookie Monsters is a crumbly mess; they get enough targets to be starter worthy, but who knows.
Prediction – The 4 pack of WRs for the Armadillos does some damage, with Garcon and grabbing the bonus and continuing to be a late season stud. Williams and Burleson come close to the bonus but things are too spread in their respective offensives to be that greedy. Roddy White will get the bonus, but the other WRs wont clear 15 points combined.
TEs
Visanthe Shiancoe v. Dallas Clark
When the season started, no one knew how to say “Visanthe Shiancoe” let alone think he’d be starting the playoffs. When he score, which is often, it’s awesome. When he doesn’t, it’s not much to look at. He gets red zone targets, and those are what truly matters for TEs as the bonus is hard to come by. What else can you say about D Clark? Probably the most consistent TE in the league, the only time he suffers is when teams make him priority #1 to stop, but that’s hard to do when the Colts have so many other weapons. He plays Denver this week, which I the second best team against TEs. So who will the battle?
Prediction – No reason Shiancoe shouldn’t get his TD and some catches, expect a game with points north of 12 points. Clark will get stymied by the Broncos D/ST and disappoint his owners in round 1; anything over 8 points would be “real nice, Clark” (make an okay hand signal when you say this.)
D/STs
Minnesota Vikings v. Cincin Bengals
A strange, but very important, battle since these teams plays each other this week. Minnesota has been great all year as well. They never had that AMAZING 40+ point game and have scored negative points twice as well, but no group can be counted on for a strong showing week in and week out like this squad. The Bengals have been a nice surprise this year, scoring 10+ points in 12 of 13 games. But without Odom and facing Farve’s crew on the turf, it might get ugly.
Prediction – Cincinnati keeps this one close and low scoring; until the 2nd half. And then things get ugly. Yards and points will pile up, though 2 picks from Farve seems likely too; expect around 12 points. Minnesota fumbles sacks and picks its way to big game at a home. Anything less than 18 points would be disappointing.
Ks
Ryan Longwell v Rob Bironas
An interesting starting note – Longwell will be kicking against Cincinnati who the Cookie Monsters will be deploying as their D/ST. Points for Longwell means less points for Bengals D/ST. Hard to know who to cheer for. Bironas has been a big benefactor when the Titans were on their winning streak. He’ll be good again as the Titans roll again this week
Prediction - Longwell should be good for at least 10 points, much to the dismay of the Cookie Monsters. And Bironas? Kicking against the Rams? Indoors? Expect 10 plus point as well.
Final prediction –
It’s gonna be close. Each team has studs hat need to show and question marks that need to be answered. It’s hard to bet against a team with Manning and AP, but the Monsters do have some studs that can ring your bell as well. In the end, a big game by the Vikings D/ST and a surprise big game from Burleson is the difference maker.
Amesbury Lake Armadillos – 156 to Afton Creek Cookie Monsters - 142
Tuesday, December 8, 2009
Playoff gambling primer
CottonwoodHills Pricks (odds 2:1)
Pros: Drew Brees, solid RBs, melt-your-face #1 WR, better than average at each and every position
Cons: Lean VERY heavily on N.O Saints, awful bench players
Avalon Park Assassins (odds 2:5)
Pros: Chris Johnson, melt-your-face #1 WR, solid #2 QB,
Cons: D/ST decision each week, only 1 HC, shaky #2 RB
Team VOTE 4 PEDRO (odds 1:3)
Pros: Brady/Welker combo, melt-your-face TE, solid D/ST matchups
Cons: Shaky RB corps, big drop off with #3 WR
Wings of Pastrami (odds 1:4)
Pros: Explosive QB, 2 melt-your-face WRs, solid bench
Cons: No real #1 RB, average D/STs
Fighting Cocks (odds 1:5)
Pros: QB and 2 RBs that are peaking, #1 TE in the biz,
Cons: No backup QB, overall WR corps is average, HC choices are shaky
The Legend of Bo (odds 1:10)
Pros: Amazing QB, explosive #1 RB and #1 WR, great D/ST choices
Cons: TEs are average at best, kicker is not in top 12 points, a few hurt starters
Amesbury Lake Armadillos (odds 1:100)
Pros: Peyton Manning and AP, #1 D/ST, surprisingly solid role players
Cons: Could Peyton sit in week 15?, WRs are very hit or miss, no #2 RB
Cookie Monsters (odds 1:10000000000)
Pros: Farve playing All World, solid #1 RB and #1 WR, explosive TE
Cons: Less than average WR corps, no even decent #2 RB Weak HCs
Pros: Drew Brees, solid RBs, melt-your-face #1 WR, better than average at each and every position
Cons: Lean VERY heavily on N.O Saints, awful bench players
Avalon Park Assassins (odds 2:5)
Pros: Chris Johnson, melt-your-face #1 WR, solid #2 QB,
Cons: D/ST decision each week, only 1 HC, shaky #2 RB
Team VOTE 4 PEDRO (odds 1:3)
Pros: Brady/Welker combo, melt-your-face TE, solid D/ST matchups
Cons: Shaky RB corps, big drop off with #3 WR
Wings of Pastrami (odds 1:4)
Pros: Explosive QB, 2 melt-your-face WRs, solid bench
Cons: No real #1 RB, average D/STs
Fighting Cocks (odds 1:5)
Pros: QB and 2 RBs that are peaking, #1 TE in the biz,
Cons: No backup QB, overall WR corps is average, HC choices are shaky
The Legend of Bo (odds 1:10)
Pros: Amazing QB, explosive #1 RB and #1 WR, great D/ST choices
Cons: TEs are average at best, kicker is not in top 12 points, a few hurt starters
Amesbury Lake Armadillos (odds 1:100)
Pros: Peyton Manning and AP, #1 D/ST, surprisingly solid role players
Cons: Could Peyton sit in week 15?, WRs are very hit or miss, no #2 RB
Cookie Monsters (odds 1:10000000000)
Pros: Farve playing All World, solid #1 RB and #1 WR, explosive TE
Cons: Less than average WR corps, no even decent #2 RB Weak HCs
Round 1 Match up - Avalon Park Assassins vs. Fighting Cocks
Avalon Park Assassins vs. Fighting Cocks
APA is, for the 2nd straight season, the highest scoring team in the league. Leaning heavily on the Houston Texans, APA also gets to unleash Chris Johnson every week. Mix in a few other middle tier players, and it usually turned into a “W” each week. Fighting Cocks on the other hand, is in the bottom half of the league in scoring. Thanks to a weak division, his decent team was able to clinch a playoff birth early. With an average point difference of 20 points per game between them, will this be the most mismatched playoff game of the week? Let’s take a look.
QB
Matt Schaub v. Phillip Rivers
Schaub is a top 5 fantasy QB. With the ability to get 300 yards each week, Schaub has been great this year. And he hasn’t been hurt like other years. Until now that is. He is listed as “questionable” this week with a dislocated non-throwing wing. He has a juicy matchup versus SEATTLE D/ST – but will APA take the risk and start him, knowing he has a pretty good QB (McNabb) on the bench? The resulting difference could be the difference between victory and defeat. Rivers has been great this season too and is playing better and better each week. Versus a suspect DALLAS D/ST, he could/should very well explode again for 50+ points.
Prediction – Schuab plays, but not up to his usual level. Count on 30ish points, but nothing more. Rivers will again need to lead the Chargers to victory and we’ll get 300 yards and 3tds in the process.
RBs
Chris Johnson / Jonathon Stewart v. Cedric Benson / Jamaal Charles
CJohnson could probably be the real life MVP if not for the play of some QBs this season. He has simply been unstoppable. Now with 7 straight 100 yard games, anything less than 25 points has to be a disappointment. Stewart proved his worth this past week, but might be in timeshare next week. Whether or not DeAngelo Williams plays, will be a huge plus or minus for the Assassins. Cedric Benson is the surprise fantasy player of the year. Even after he got hurt 2 weeks ago, he came back strong. His matchup against the vaunted MINN D/ST does not inspire confidence though. He will probably struggle in Round 1. Charles has been surprisingly red hot the past 2 weeks and his matchup (versus worst in the league Buffalo) might be able to make up for whatever Benson does.
Prediction – Chris Johnson once again dominates, expect close to 40 points. With Williams back, Stewart is barely worth the start. Benson has a solid game, but no bonus or score. Charles helps though with a bonus and 2 TDs.
WRs
Andre Johnson/Reggie Wayne/Donald Driver v Marques Colston/ Derrick Mason/Steve Smith (NYG)
APA invested heavily in 2 stud WR during the draft; they haven’t disappointed at all. But lately, things have been a little down. Andre has slowed down in recent weeks, but should be able to smoke the smaller SEATTLE DBs. Wayne too has slowed down with just 160 yards total in the past 3 weeks. He might run into trouble again with Champ Bailey locking down on him. Driver can bring the goods, but has been inconsistent, still worth starting though. Colston has seen his role diminish in recent as Robert Meachem has had the most targets on the team in the past 4 weeks, but his matchup versus ATL D/ST is filthy good. Mason can get lucky and explode or can disappear; not what you want in a #2 WR. Same for Smith, who started the year great but has fallen back to earth slightly. Versus Philly isn’t the best way to get back to star status.
Prediction – Andre will be huge, Wayne will get blanketed and have a fourth average game in a row. Driver proves to be average once again. Colson will match whatever Johnson does, but the rest of the WR starters will be pretty flaccid for the Cocks.
TEs
Brent Celek v. Vernon Davis
APA took a calculated risk when he didn’t drat a TE until late. He was rewarded with Celek, who has been solid, if not great from week to week. It wont matter who throws him the ball (evident by his Vick TD last week), Celek should once again be really good against the NYG; he laws last time (14 points.)Vernon Davis has surprised everyone by turning into the #1 TE in the league. Davis has four 25+ point games in his last seven and another big game is not of the question versus an ARI D/ST that is horrible against TEs.
Prediction – Both TEs bring their A” game, Davis will probably get an “A+” though. Expect a TD from both and a bonus from one.
D/ST
Tenn Titans v. Philly Eagles
4 months ago starting a TENN D/ST was a no brainer. 2 months ago, you would have laughed at someone who started them. Now? Well, it’s not the worst thing in the world. Especially against the laughable offense of the St. Louis Rams. APA has some other options (Colts, Giants, Bucs) but using Titans probably has the most upside. The Eagles allow some points, but also sack the QB and seem to get fumbles and INTs in every game. The also have 4 D/ST TDs this year. Facing a newly revived NYG team, they’ll need all the extra little things they can get.
Prediction – TENN has a great matchup, but still isn’t back to the dominate team they once were – expect a mediocre game; maybe 12 points. Philly is gonna get thiers- count a few sacks and at least 1 Eli Manning turnover; 15 points.
Kickers –
Shayne Graham v. Ryan Succop
Simply put, Graham sucked earlier in the year. After back to back great games and kicking indoors versus a MINN D/ST that will stymie some Bengals drives, he should be at least good once again. Succop kicks for the Chiefs, so it’s hard to count on anything great. But against a Buffalo team, he should at least be good.
Prediction – Graham will continue his hot streak with double digit points. Succop surprises and get 10 points as well.
FINAL PREDICTION – The Assassins’ are not stealthy; you know what you are going get – a score of 160+. Though their team has some tough matchups this week, you shouldn’t expect less. Fighting Cocks will need all things to come together for a victory to be his. I don’t see it happening. Avalon Park Assassins – 178 to Fighting Cocks - 149
APA is, for the 2nd straight season, the highest scoring team in the league. Leaning heavily on the Houston Texans, APA also gets to unleash Chris Johnson every week. Mix in a few other middle tier players, and it usually turned into a “W” each week. Fighting Cocks on the other hand, is in the bottom half of the league in scoring. Thanks to a weak division, his decent team was able to clinch a playoff birth early. With an average point difference of 20 points per game between them, will this be the most mismatched playoff game of the week? Let’s take a look.
QB
Matt Schaub v. Phillip Rivers
Schaub is a top 5 fantasy QB. With the ability to get 300 yards each week, Schaub has been great this year. And he hasn’t been hurt like other years. Until now that is. He is listed as “questionable” this week with a dislocated non-throwing wing. He has a juicy matchup versus SEATTLE D/ST – but will APA take the risk and start him, knowing he has a pretty good QB (McNabb) on the bench? The resulting difference could be the difference between victory and defeat. Rivers has been great this season too and is playing better and better each week. Versus a suspect DALLAS D/ST, he could/should very well explode again for 50+ points.
Prediction – Schuab plays, but not up to his usual level. Count on 30ish points, but nothing more. Rivers will again need to lead the Chargers to victory and we’ll get 300 yards and 3tds in the process.
RBs
Chris Johnson / Jonathon Stewart v. Cedric Benson / Jamaal Charles
CJohnson could probably be the real life MVP if not for the play of some QBs this season. He has simply been unstoppable. Now with 7 straight 100 yard games, anything less than 25 points has to be a disappointment. Stewart proved his worth this past week, but might be in timeshare next week. Whether or not DeAngelo Williams plays, will be a huge plus or minus for the Assassins. Cedric Benson is the surprise fantasy player of the year. Even after he got hurt 2 weeks ago, he came back strong. His matchup against the vaunted MINN D/ST does not inspire confidence though. He will probably struggle in Round 1. Charles has been surprisingly red hot the past 2 weeks and his matchup (versus worst in the league Buffalo) might be able to make up for whatever Benson does.
Prediction – Chris Johnson once again dominates, expect close to 40 points. With Williams back, Stewart is barely worth the start. Benson has a solid game, but no bonus or score. Charles helps though with a bonus and 2 TDs.
WRs
Andre Johnson/Reggie Wayne/Donald Driver v Marques Colston/ Derrick Mason/Steve Smith (NYG)
APA invested heavily in 2 stud WR during the draft; they haven’t disappointed at all. But lately, things have been a little down. Andre has slowed down in recent weeks, but should be able to smoke the smaller SEATTLE DBs. Wayne too has slowed down with just 160 yards total in the past 3 weeks. He might run into trouble again with Champ Bailey locking down on him. Driver can bring the goods, but has been inconsistent, still worth starting though. Colston has seen his role diminish in recent as Robert Meachem has had the most targets on the team in the past 4 weeks, but his matchup versus ATL D/ST is filthy good. Mason can get lucky and explode or can disappear; not what you want in a #2 WR. Same for Smith, who started the year great but has fallen back to earth slightly. Versus Philly isn’t the best way to get back to star status.
Prediction – Andre will be huge, Wayne will get blanketed and have a fourth average game in a row. Driver proves to be average once again. Colson will match whatever Johnson does, but the rest of the WR starters will be pretty flaccid for the Cocks.
TEs
Brent Celek v. Vernon Davis
APA took a calculated risk when he didn’t drat a TE until late. He was rewarded with Celek, who has been solid, if not great from week to week. It wont matter who throws him the ball (evident by his Vick TD last week), Celek should once again be really good against the NYG; he laws last time (14 points.)Vernon Davis has surprised everyone by turning into the #1 TE in the league. Davis has four 25+ point games in his last seven and another big game is not of the question versus an ARI D/ST that is horrible against TEs.
Prediction – Both TEs bring their A” game, Davis will probably get an “A+” though. Expect a TD from both and a bonus from one.
D/ST
Tenn Titans v. Philly Eagles
4 months ago starting a TENN D/ST was a no brainer. 2 months ago, you would have laughed at someone who started them. Now? Well, it’s not the worst thing in the world. Especially against the laughable offense of the St. Louis Rams. APA has some other options (Colts, Giants, Bucs) but using Titans probably has the most upside. The Eagles allow some points, but also sack the QB and seem to get fumbles and INTs in every game. The also have 4 D/ST TDs this year. Facing a newly revived NYG team, they’ll need all the extra little things they can get.
Prediction – TENN has a great matchup, but still isn’t back to the dominate team they once were – expect a mediocre game; maybe 12 points. Philly is gonna get thiers- count a few sacks and at least 1 Eli Manning turnover; 15 points.
Kickers –
Shayne Graham v. Ryan Succop
Simply put, Graham sucked earlier in the year. After back to back great games and kicking indoors versus a MINN D/ST that will stymie some Bengals drives, he should be at least good once again. Succop kicks for the Chiefs, so it’s hard to count on anything great. But against a Buffalo team, he should at least be good.
Prediction – Graham will continue his hot streak with double digit points. Succop surprises and get 10 points as well.
FINAL PREDICTION – The Assassins’ are not stealthy; you know what you are going get – a score of 160+. Though their team has some tough matchups this week, you shouldn’t expect less. Fighting Cocks will need all things to come together for a victory to be his. I don’t see it happening. Avalon Park Assassins – 178 to Fighting Cocks - 149
Round 1 Match up - Team Vote 4 Pedro VS. Legend of Bo
Team Vote 4 Pedro VS. Legend of Bo
This matchup features the league’s surprisingly only 10 win team versus a high scoring, though “middle of the pack” record-wise team. Both teams have could be considered inconsistent scorers (they both have 4 games under 120 points) but have shown the ability to have weeks where it all comes together with big 200 point weeks. So which team will show up in round 1 of the playoffs?
QBs
Tom Brady v. Aaron Rogers
The marquee match up in this battle, both teams depend on their stud QB to get them to big scores each week. Ranked #3 (Rodgers) and #4 (Brady), if one of these players doesn’t get to the bonus AND doesn’t get 2-3 TDs, it will be a disappointment and might spell doom for their owner. Brady might be pissed after these past few weeks and make a weak Carolina D/ST pay big. Rodgers faces a banged up CHI D/ST at home in the cold.
Prediction – Both QBs score big, at least 40+, but Brady’s payday will be bigger.
RBs
Marion Barber/Knowshon Moreno v. Mo Jones Drew/LeSean McCoy
No match up of RBs might be more fun to say. These guys all sound like made up players from “Breakdance Fest 1987.” But the reality is only 1 of them is a difference maker – MJD. Jones Drew has been a slump lately (nothing over 76 yards in the past 3 weeks) after reeling off some biggies. He’ll need to step up against a Miami team that ranks in top half of rush defense. McCoy won’t be expected to do more than get 7-11 points. Speaking of expectations, Team Vote 4 Pedro can’t expect much from either Barber or Moreno; neither have busted for the bonus since week 2. Moreno has gotten goal line touches and converted lately, but anything over 10 points for either back is gravy.
Prediction – MJD has a solid game with a TD, but won’t get the bonus. All the other backs do as expected – not much.
WRs
Wes Welker/Ochocino Johnson/Chris Chambers V.A Boldin/DeSean Jackson/Steve Smith
Both teams have a solid group of wide outs. Welker has been a tear lately (80+ yards in 5 of 6 games) and “85” and Chambers have had a little resurgence as well. Boldin has shown no ill effects from his injury early in the year and has been better than solid. DJAX could have 2 catches in a game but they both could be 50 yards +. The wild card here is Steve Smith. L of B traded for him in week 5 hoping for big things; they never came. Smith has yet to hit the bonus or a 20 point game since week 2. But he is still Steve Smith – the potential is ALWAYS there. But having Matt Moore doesn’t help. All that said, really all 6 of these WRs can disappear and do nothing in any given week. Who shows up in Round 1 is gonna be a huge question.
Prediction – Welker and Boldin, with great matchups, will get bonuses. Ochocinco and DeSean will have a solid games, albeit no bonuses, and much better than the rest of the group.
TE
Antonio Gates v. Zach Miller
Ahhh, the great difference maker. This position is the most lopsided in this matchup. Gates has simply exploded lately, with two big games. Miller gets all game what Gates does in a half. Neither player has an amazing matchup. But Gates doesn’t need one.
Prediction – Gates has another bonus game with a TD. Miller won’t clear 5 points.
D/ST
Baltimore Ravens v. Green Bay Packers
Both teams have flipped and flopped their D/STs in recent weeks. But week 14 has good match ups for both owners. Baltimore is facing a Detroit team that, while it can be explosive, has QB issues and no running game. Expect the Ravens to feast on that combo but to also allow some long TDs. The Packers have been hurting but can still force turnovers and sacks, which add up fast.
Prediction – Ravens will get scored on, but will force INTs and fumbles from whoever is behind the center in Detroit. Don’t expect a classic Ravens game with 20+ D/ST points, but somewhere in the teens. Packers will get INTs from Jay Cutler, but will also get points and yards piled on them. Anything over 15 would be great.
Kickers
Mason Crosby v. Robbie Gould
Bing Crosby’s kid is usually a great option, but at Chicago, in December, could be rough. Robbie Gould won’t have it any easy. But he might get fewer chances too.
Prediction – Crosby gets more points; think 10+, thanks to Green Bay team that will get many opportunities thanks to some INTs. Gould should be average, around 7 points.
FINAL PREDICTION – Both teams have enough star players not to be let down in total points. The TEs are such a HUGE disparity that it might very well be the difference. With the 10 point bonus in their bag of tricks as well, Team Vote 4 Pedro will punch their ticket to the next round. Team Vote 4 Pedro – 165 to Legend of Bo – 144
Avalon Park Assassins vs. Fighting Cocks
APA is, for the 2nd straight season, the highest scoring team in the league. Leaning heavily on the Houston Texans, APA also gets to unleash Chris Johnson every week. Mix in a few other middle tier players, and it usually turned into a “W” each week. Fighting Cocks on the other hand, is in the bottom half of the league in scoring. Thanks to a weak division, his decent team was able to clinch a playoff birth early. With an average point difference of 20 points per game between them, will this be the most mismatched playoff game of the week? Let’s take a look.
This matchup features the league’s surprisingly only 10 win team versus a high scoring, though “middle of the pack” record-wise team. Both teams have could be considered inconsistent scorers (they both have 4 games under 120 points) but have shown the ability to have weeks where it all comes together with big 200 point weeks. So which team will show up in round 1 of the playoffs?
QBs
Tom Brady v. Aaron Rogers
The marquee match up in this battle, both teams depend on their stud QB to get them to big scores each week. Ranked #3 (Rodgers) and #4 (Brady), if one of these players doesn’t get to the bonus AND doesn’t get 2-3 TDs, it will be a disappointment and might spell doom for their owner. Brady might be pissed after these past few weeks and make a weak Carolina D/ST pay big. Rodgers faces a banged up CHI D/ST at home in the cold.
Prediction – Both QBs score big, at least 40+, but Brady’s payday will be bigger.
RBs
Marion Barber/Knowshon Moreno v. Mo Jones Drew/LeSean McCoy
No match up of RBs might be more fun to say. These guys all sound like made up players from “Breakdance Fest 1987.” But the reality is only 1 of them is a difference maker – MJD. Jones Drew has been a slump lately (nothing over 76 yards in the past 3 weeks) after reeling off some biggies. He’ll need to step up against a Miami team that ranks in top half of rush defense. McCoy won’t be expected to do more than get 7-11 points. Speaking of expectations, Team Vote 4 Pedro can’t expect much from either Barber or Moreno; neither have busted for the bonus since week 2. Moreno has gotten goal line touches and converted lately, but anything over 10 points for either back is gravy.
Prediction – MJD has a solid game with a TD, but won’t get the bonus. All the other backs do as expected – not much.
WRs
Wes Welker/Ochocino Johnson/Chris Chambers V.A Boldin/DeSean Jackson/Steve Smith
Both teams have a solid group of wide outs. Welker has been a tear lately (80+ yards in 5 of 6 games) and “85” and Chambers have had a little resurgence as well. Boldin has shown no ill effects from his injury early in the year and has been better than solid. DJAX could have 2 catches in a game but they both could be 50 yards +. The wild card here is Steve Smith. L of B traded for him in week 5 hoping for big things; they never came. Smith has yet to hit the bonus or a 20 point game since week 2. But he is still Steve Smith – the potential is ALWAYS there. But having Matt Moore doesn’t help. All that said, really all 6 of these WRs can disappear and do nothing in any given week. Who shows up in Round 1 is gonna be a huge question.
Prediction – Welker and Boldin, with great matchups, will get bonuses. Ochocinco and DeSean will have a solid games, albeit no bonuses, and much better than the rest of the group.
TE
Antonio Gates v. Zach Miller
Ahhh, the great difference maker. This position is the most lopsided in this matchup. Gates has simply exploded lately, with two big games. Miller gets all game what Gates does in a half. Neither player has an amazing matchup. But Gates doesn’t need one.
Prediction – Gates has another bonus game with a TD. Miller won’t clear 5 points.
D/ST
Baltimore Ravens v. Green Bay Packers
Both teams have flipped and flopped their D/STs in recent weeks. But week 14 has good match ups for both owners. Baltimore is facing a Detroit team that, while it can be explosive, has QB issues and no running game. Expect the Ravens to feast on that combo but to also allow some long TDs. The Packers have been hurting but can still force turnovers and sacks, which add up fast.
Prediction – Ravens will get scored on, but will force INTs and fumbles from whoever is behind the center in Detroit. Don’t expect a classic Ravens game with 20+ D/ST points, but somewhere in the teens. Packers will get INTs from Jay Cutler, but will also get points and yards piled on them. Anything over 15 would be great.
Kickers
Mason Crosby v. Robbie Gould
Bing Crosby’s kid is usually a great option, but at Chicago, in December, could be rough. Robbie Gould won’t have it any easy. But he might get fewer chances too.
Prediction – Crosby gets more points; think 10+, thanks to Green Bay team that will get many opportunities thanks to some INTs. Gould should be average, around 7 points.
FINAL PREDICTION – Both teams have enough star players not to be let down in total points. The TEs are such a HUGE disparity that it might very well be the difference. With the 10 point bonus in their bag of tricks as well, Team Vote 4 Pedro will punch their ticket to the next round. Team Vote 4 Pedro – 165 to Legend of Bo – 144
Avalon Park Assassins vs. Fighting Cocks
APA is, for the 2nd straight season, the highest scoring team in the league. Leaning heavily on the Houston Texans, APA also gets to unleash Chris Johnson every week. Mix in a few other middle tier players, and it usually turned into a “W” each week. Fighting Cocks on the other hand, is in the bottom half of the league in scoring. Thanks to a weak division, his decent team was able to clinch a playoff birth early. With an average point difference of 20 points per game between them, will this be the most mismatched playoff game of the week? Let’s take a look.
Tuesday, December 1, 2009
The team you should be scared of
We’ll have a breakdown of all of the playoff teams and their chances on winning next week. But heading into the playoffs, there is one team EVERYONE should be scared of…
The Cottonwood Hills Pricks.
A winner of 3 of their last 4, their 6-6 record does not reflect how scary this team is. Currently 3rd overall in points, the Pricks have the 2nd best average in the past 5 weeks (164.6 versus #1 average 166.9 of Avalon Park Assassins) but have scored over 170 three times in those part 5 weeks, more than any other team.
Why are the past 5 weeks so important? That’s when they traded for Drew Brees.
After starting the season hotter than a pistol, Brees had mini slump which included games of 14.6 and 19.7. Since then he has 4 games over 40 points, 2 of which went over 65 points. Probably more than any other player in fantasy right now (maybe Chris Johnson?), Brees has the ability to single-handedly win a fantasy week for his owner. Brees’ matchups in the playoffs, ATL, DAL, TB, are the #3, #12 and #4 teams respectively that QBs score the most points on. He chances to drop a 50+ point game every week of the playoffs are very, very good. That bodes well for success on a run to Championship.
Not only does Brees offer a great chance to win every week, the Pricks have 3 other studs that can pop off a big game or at least a bonus, no matter the opponent – Steven Jackson, Larry Fitzgerald and Jason Witten. Though these players have had ups and downs this season, their previous seasons show that 2 tds or 100 yards in a game is never out of the picture. Additionally, Sidney Rice and Rashard Mendenhall have proven to be studs now that have solidified major roles on their teams.
All of these points show that the Cottonwood Hills Pricks are to be seriously feared, perhaps the most feared, in the 2009 playoffs.
If they make it.
The Cottonwood Hills Pricks.
A winner of 3 of their last 4, their 6-6 record does not reflect how scary this team is. Currently 3rd overall in points, the Pricks have the 2nd best average in the past 5 weeks (164.6 versus #1 average 166.9 of Avalon Park Assassins) but have scored over 170 three times in those part 5 weeks, more than any other team.
Why are the past 5 weeks so important? That’s when they traded for Drew Brees.
After starting the season hotter than a pistol, Brees had mini slump which included games of 14.6 and 19.7. Since then he has 4 games over 40 points, 2 of which went over 65 points. Probably more than any other player in fantasy right now (maybe Chris Johnson?), Brees has the ability to single-handedly win a fantasy week for his owner. Brees’ matchups in the playoffs, ATL, DAL, TB, are the #3, #12 and #4 teams respectively that QBs score the most points on. He chances to drop a 50+ point game every week of the playoffs are very, very good. That bodes well for success on a run to Championship.
Not only does Brees offer a great chance to win every week, the Pricks have 3 other studs that can pop off a big game or at least a bonus, no matter the opponent – Steven Jackson, Larry Fitzgerald and Jason Witten. Though these players have had ups and downs this season, their previous seasons show that 2 tds or 100 yards in a game is never out of the picture. Additionally, Sidney Rice and Rashard Mendenhall have proven to be studs now that have solidified major roles on their teams.
All of these points show that the Cottonwood Hills Pricks are to be seriously feared, perhaps the most feared, in the 2009 playoffs.
If they make it.
points scored ranking vs. current playoff seedings
thought this was interesting....I think it shows that really no win can be considered an upset this playoff season.
points scored (seeding)
#1 - Avalon Park Assassins (#3 American)
#2 - The Legend of Bo (#4 American)
#3 - CottonwoodHills Pricks (#4 National)
#4 - Team VOTE 4 PEDRO (#1 American)
#5 - Afton Creek Cookie Monsters (currently not in playoffs)
#6 - Wings of Pastrami (#2 National)
#7 - Fighting Cocks (#2 American)
#8 - Floating Turtleheads (#3 National)
#9 - Amesbury Lake Armadillos (#1 National)
#10 - Auburn Hills Alley Cats (currently not in playoffs)
#11 - Estelle Getty's Boobs (currently not in playoffs)
#12 - The Reflection Ra-Tards (currently not in playoffs)
points scored (seeding)
#1 - Avalon Park Assassins (#3 American)
#2 - The Legend of Bo (#4 American)
#3 - CottonwoodHills Pricks (#4 National)
#4 - Team VOTE 4 PEDRO (#1 American)
#5 - Afton Creek Cookie Monsters (currently not in playoffs)
#6 - Wings of Pastrami (#2 National)
#7 - Fighting Cocks (#2 American)
#8 - Floating Turtleheads (#3 National)
#9 - Amesbury Lake Armadillos (#1 National)
#10 - Auburn Hills Alley Cats (currently not in playoffs)
#11 - Estelle Getty's Boobs (currently not in playoffs)
#12 - The Reflection Ra-Tards (currently not in playoffs)
Week 13 Playoff Picture
American Conference:
- Team Vote 4 Pedro (9-3) – The Pedros keep rolling with their third win in a row. The Week 12 victory secures the #1 spot for the Pedros, and the 10-point advantage in round one of the playoffs.
- Fighting Cocks (7-5) – The Cocks have dropped two straight and are now locked into the #2 seed. Their likely reward for winning their division? A round one matchup with the Assassins.
- Avalon Park Assassins (8-4) – The Pedros' win eliminates the Assassins from a shot at the division title, but with a 200-point advantage over the next closest team, the #3 spot is all but secured.
- The Legend of Bo (7-5) – The LOBs continued their winning ways, defeating the ND2-leading Armadillos in Week 12. The LOBs are now the second-highest scoring team in the league and lead the Alley Cats, the next closest non-playoff team in the American Conference, by nearly 300 points.
Outside looking in:
- Estelle Getty's Boobs (4-8) – The Boobs have basically been eliminated from the playoff race, but they have a huge Week13 game against the Pricks.
- Auburn Hills Alley Cats (1-11) – The Alley Cats saw their score dip for the third consecutive week in a loss to the Pricks. They've outscored the Boobs, but that hasn't translated to wins this season.
This conference's seeding is pretty much set.
National Conference (This information was compiled by Jason, to whom I give my gratitude.)
Current standings
#1 - Amesbury Lake Armadillos* (Division winner, own H2H tiebreaker with WOP)
#2 - Wings of Pastrami* (Division winner)
#3 - Floating Turtleheads (Best Record, own H2H tiebreaker with CHP)
#4 – Cottonwood Hills Pricks (Most points)
*secured playoff spot
Notes:
- Amesbury Lake Armadillos cannot be lower than #2
- Wings of Pastrami cannot be lower than #2
- Floating Turtleheads NOR Cottonwood Pricks have secured playoff spots yet.
Playoff scenarios
Amesbury Lake Armadillos
- Win - Secure #1 seed
- Loss & Wings of Pastrami win - secure #2 seed
- Loss & Wings of Pastrami loss - secure #1 seed
Wings of Pastrami
- Win & Amesbury Lake Armadillos loss -secure #1 seed
- Win & Amesbury Lake Armadillos win - secure #2 seed
Floating Turtleheads
- Win – secure #3 seed
- Loss & Cottonwood Hills Pricks win – secure #4 seed if they outscore Afton Creek Monsters 46.1 points in Week 13
- Win & Cottonwood Hills Pricks win – secure #3 seed (own H2H tiebreaker with CHP)
- Loss & Cottonwood Hills Pricks loss – secure #3 seed (own H2H tiebreaker with CHP)
Cottonwood Hills Pricks
- Win & Floating Turtleheads win – secure #4 seed (lose H2H tiebreaker with FT)
- Win & Floating Turtleheads loss – secure #3 seed (based on overall record)
- Would secure #4 seed if Afton Creek Monsters do not outscore them by more than 31.7 points in week 13.
Afton Creek Monsters
- Cannot get in playoffs as #3 seed (best record)
- Must outscore the Pricks by 31.8 points in week 13 to guarantee the #4 seed.
- If Floating Turtleheads loses and Cottonwood Hills Pricks wins, the Monsters must not be outscored by Floating Turtleheads by more than 46 points in week 13 to secure the #4 seed.
Other scenario involving the Monsters:
- If Cottonwood Hills Pricks and Afton Creek Monsters tie in record and points, Cottonwood Hills Pricks would secure #4 seed based on better division record.
Tuesday, November 24, 2009
Week 12 Playoff Picture
The National Conference playoff picture continues to shift a little, as ND1 foes vie for the final playoff spot. If the playoffs started today, here's what we'd have:
American Conference:
- Team Vote 4 Pedro (8-3) – In a matchup between the top teams in each conference (record-wise), the Pedros throttled the Armadillos to hang onto the #1 seed from the American Conference. Once again, the Pedros responded in a week when all three AD1 teams won. The Pedros can clinch the #1 seed with a win in one of their last two games. With the Ra-Tards on deck, that #1 seed could be had as soon as next week.
- Fighting Cocks (7-4) – After pulling out a win despite scoring only 80 points in Week 10, the Cocks lost to the Pricks in Week 11. With Ronnie Brown out and Benson banged up, this team, like its players, is limping into the playoffs. With the division in hand, though, the #2 seed is secure and a shot at the #1 seed (and the 10-point advantage that goes with it) is still, technically, possible if the Cocks win out and the Pedros lose their remaining two games.
- Avalon Park Assassins (7-4) – Nothing changes, here, as the Assassins continue to hold a 200-point lead over the next highest-scoring team. A shot at the #1 seed is still possible if the Assassins win out and the Pedros lose at least one of their last two.
- The Legend of Bo (6-5) – A monster 236-point output all but ensures the LOBs will be the #4 seed from the American Conference, as this puts their point lead over the next closest team, the Alley Cats, at nearly 240. They still trail the Assassins by over 200 points and cannot win the division, so this playoff seed is pretty firm.
Outside looking in:
- Estelle Getty's Boobs (4-7) – The Boobs have won 2 straight, and while they aren't likely to catch the LOBs in the battle for the #4 seed, they have meaningful games against the WOPs and the Pricks remaining. They could factor into the National Conference's playoff seeding.
- Auburn Hills Alley Cats (1-10) – The Alley Cats failed to embrace the role as spoiler in a Week 11 loss to the WOPs. With two games remaining against teams who aren't concerned about wins and losses, the Alley Cats have nothing but their pride at stake. Avoiding a 1-win season might be the goal, now. Unfortunately, the loss guarantees the Alley Cats will be paying someone's entry fee next year.
These playoff spots are pretty much set. The Cocks and the Assassins both technically have a shot at the #1 seed, but the Pedros would have to lose both of their final games, as they hold the tiebreaker over both teams by sweeping the Assassins and winning the H2H matchup with the Cocks. Of course, the #3 and #4 spots are not guaranteed until after the final game, too, but neither the Assassins nor the LOBs look in danger of falling out of those spots. The bottom line is that all four of these teams are likely locked into the playoffs, with seedings still somewhat fluid.
National Conference:
- Amesbury Lake Armadillos (8-3) – After losing to the Pedros in Week 11, the Armadillos need to win one of their last two games to clinch the division. The catch? They face the two highest scoring teams in the league in those last two weeks. However, there is no scenario that doesn't have the Armadillos into the playoffs based on record. So while the #1 seed is not secured, a playoff spot is.
- Wings of Pastrami (7-4) – The WOPs didn't have an overwhelming scoring week, but did rack up their third straight win, putting themselves in great position to capture the division title and keeping the #1 seed within grasp. One win in their final two games wraps up the division. If they should finish with the same record as the Pricks, things get interesting, as the two split their H2H matchups and are separated by only 2 total points.
- Floating Turtleheads (6-5) – Despite losing three straight, the Turtleheads hopes of a division title are still alive, mathematically, and with the division-leading Armadillos having two tough matchups remaining, there's reason to be hopeful. However, they face the current #1 seed from the American Conference next week (the Pedros), and they face the league's highest scoring team in the final week, so a 5-game losing streak isn't out of the question. If the Turtleheads stumble in these final weeks, a number of interesting tiebreak scenarios could present themselves.
- Cottonwood Hills Pricks (5-6) – In a battle of male anatomy, the Pricks bested the Cocks to move closer to .500. More importantly, the Pricks overtook the Monsters in total score, jumping back into this playoff spot. For now. The Pricks lead the monsters by just 8.9 points.
Outside looking in:
- Afton Creek Monsters (4-7) – The Monsters lost any shot at the division with a loss to the Boobs in Week 11. What's worse is that their 150-point output was not enough to hold onto the #4 spot in the National Conference. They Monsters don't need to necessarily score a ton, and they don't even need to win in the final two weeks, they just need to score 9 or more points than their division mates.
- Reflection Ra-Tards (3-8) – The Ra-Tards could still spoil some playoff plans with games against the Pedros and LOBs remaining.
Amazingly, less than 9 points separates the three teams from the ND1. No team from the division has secured a playoff spot, and none has been eliminated yet, either. This is shaping up to be an intriguing race, with the focus as much on scores as on wins and losses.
Current Playoff Matchups – If they started today, here's how the games would look:
American Conference
- #1 Pedros (145.7 pts/gm) vs. #4 LOBs (148.5/gm) – Think the 10-pt advantage won't be important here?
- #2 Cocks (139.9/gm) vs. #3 Assassins (166.9/gm) – The higher seed would be the underdog in this one.
National Conference
- #1 Armadillos (138.9/gm) vs. #4 Pricks (143.4/gm) – Again, that advantage could come in handy.
- #2 WOPs (143.2/gm) vs. #3 Turtleheads (140.5/gm) – Another close matchup if you look at total points.
Tuesday, November 17, 2009
Keeper Candidates
Now that the trade deadline has passed, those players who are likely to be keepers are probably staying on rosters, so this seems like a good time to look at next year's potential keepers. Here's a list of the leading keeper candidates for each team:
Estelle Getty's Boobs: Ahmad Bradshaw (6th)
Afton Creek Monsters: Dallas Clark (5th) (Interesting note: The Monsters dropped Sidney Rice, currently the 12th-ranked WR, who was a 19th round selection.)
Wings of Pastrami: Steve Breaston (7th – Assuming Boldin is traded in the off-season.)
Avalon Park Assassins: Matt Schaub (6th)
Auburn Hills Alley Cats: Kellen Winslow (6th – This roster is almost entirely new as a result of trades.)
Floating Turtleheads: Vincent Jackson (4th)
Team Vote 4 Pedro: Matt Stafford (20th)
Amesbury Lake Armadillos: Beanie Wells (10th – FA)
Fighting Cocks: Cedric Benson (7th)
Legend of Bo: LeSean McCoy (9th – Particularly if Westbrook's contract isn't renewed.)
Cottonwood Hills Pricks: Rashard Mendenhall (10th)
Reflection Ridge Ra-Tards: Mark Sanchez (14th)
I've tried to be bold and only list one candidate per team. This should generate some discussion, I think. In my opinion, Pate will perhaps have the most difficult decision with Benson, Vernon Davis (14th), and NYG's Steve Smith (16th).
Week 11 Playoff Picture
Once again, there's been no change in the seeding, but the picture is now taking better shape and some races are heating up.
American Conference:
- Team Vote 4 Pedro (7-3) – The Pedros used a big effort from the Ravens D to secure a W, snap a two-game skid, and find a spot atop the rankings. Their two division foes are still in the hunt, but the Pedros continue to fight them off
- Fighting Cocks (7-3) – The Cocks wrapped up their division last, guaranteeing themselves a top-two seed and the 10-point first round advantage that goes along with it. Their Week 7 loss to the Pedros may have bigger implications than simply costing them the conference's top seed, though, as they are situating themselves to face the top-scoring Assassins in the first round of the playoffs.
- Avalon Park Assassins (6-4) – The Assassins are fairly well entrenched in this spot if they cannot find a way to best the Pedros' record. (Team V4P swept the Assassins, so the Assassins need are technically more than just one game back of the division lead.) The Assassins have scored more than 250 points more than the next closest team in the league, let alone the division. While we technically can't guarantee a playoff spot based on points scored, this is about as sure a thing as a guantee.
- The Legend of Bo (5-5) – After ripping off a three-game win streak, the LOBs have looked pretty mediocre in losing two straight and have fallen two games back of the division lead. They're still nearly 130 points better than the next closest team (the Alley Cats), so this spot is secure for now.
Outside looking in:
- Auburn Hills Alley Cats (1-9) – After getting off the schnide in Week 9, the Alley Cats did what they do best in Week 10, lost a close matchup despite a respectable score. They've passed the Boobs in overall scoring, though, and continue to be a tough out. With key games against all three ND1 foes remaining, they could continue to embrace the role of spoiler.
- Estelle Getty's Boobs (3-7) – The Boobs got a W in an uninspiring 117-87 victory in Week 10. However, the division is out of reach and they are about 210 points out of the last spot. Like the Alley Cats, the Boobs face the ND1 opponents in the last three games, giving them something to play for.
Once again, the seeding is unchanged. The interesting thing is the Alley Cats jumping over the Boobs in total points and the implications of the seedings and playoff matchups. The Cocks and Pedros are very evenly matched, as there is less than 25 total points difference between them (and both are 2-2 in their last four games). However, there's a significant difference between the current #3 and #4 teams. The #1 seed is, therefore, getting a big advantage in round one.
National Conference:
- Amesbury Lake Armadillos (8-2) – The Armadillos responded to their second loss of the season in Week 9 with a nice win in Week 10 (courtesy of Manning's late-game heroics). Their magic number stands at 2, and if the Armadillos want to maintain the top seed, they need to rely on W's, as they split the H2H matchup with the Turtleheads and lead them by only 6 total points.
- Wings of Pastrami (6-4) – The WOPs have ridden back-to-back big fantasy wins to the top of ND1 and now find themselves as the second highest scoring team in the league. The WOPs magic number is more or less 1, as they swept the Pricks and have a points lead over the Monsters (albeit a slim one: about 22 points).
- Floating Turtleheads (6-4) – The Turtleheads have now fallen behind the Armadillos in both record and total points. With three games left, they likely need to win out to have any shot at the #1 seed. A poor showing against the Boobs in Week 10 didn't help matters.
- Afton Creek Monsters (4-6) – The Monsters got roughed up by the Assassins in Week 10 but are still holding off the Pricks for this last spot. Their total points lead is now under 25, though, so this position is tenuous at best.
Outside looking in:
- Cottonwood Hills Pricks (4-6) – Thanks to the Ravens D feasting on a feeble Browns offense, the Pricks failed to keep pace with the division-leading WOPs. They did, however, close the gap between themselves and the Monsters and are very much in the thick of the playoff race.
- Reflection Ra-Tards (3-7) – The Ra-Tards become the second team mathematically eliminated from the playoffs based on record, and they trail the #4 Monsters by nearly 385 points. To make matters worse, they face the tough AD1 in their final games. Time to start focusing on next season's keepers.
The National Division has perhaps the most intriguing playoff race, as the Pricks and the Monsters battle for the final position. This has turned into a pretty balanced conference, as less than 50 total points separates the five teams still vying for playoff spots.
Thursday, November 5, 2009
Week 9 Playoff Picture
There's been no change in the picture, yet, but things are still interesting. I've tried to capture the playoff race below.
American Conference:
- Team Vote 4 Pedro (6-2) – The Pedros hold on to the #1 ranking for the second week in a row, despite an 88-point walloping at the hands of the Monsters.
- Fighting Cocks (5-3) – The Cocks have lost two in a row, but haven't lost any ground in the standings. At this point, a 3-game division lead is looking fairly significant, making the Cocks a pretty sure bet to make the playoffs out of the weak AD2.
- Avalon Park Assassins (5-3) – Despite sharing the same record, the Assassins hold onto this spot over the LOBs with a commanding 165+-point total-score advantage. Like the Cocks, this team would have to have a fairly major meltdown to miss out on the playoffs, yet they are still in the running for the top seed, back only one game of the Pedros. The Assassins could also slip to the 4 seed if they fall behind the LOBs, record-wise.
- The Legend of Bo (5-3) – Also just one game back of the Pedros, the LOBs hold this spot by virtue of their 158-point lead over the Boobs. The LOBs, like the Assassins, are still in the running for the top and third seeds.
Outside looking in:
- Estelle Getty's Boobs (2-6) – A scoring correction gave the Boobs a heartbreaking loss this weekend, and they fell further behind the LOBs for the last playoff spot.
- Auburn Hills Alley Cats (0-8) – Amazingly still winless, the Alley Cats are the first team to be mathematically eliminated from the record-based playoff spots. The Cats would need to see a major uptick in scoring to keep their slim playoff hopes alive, but with three of their final five games coming against current division leaders, spoiler is probably a more realistic ambition.
The seeding is unchanged, and the four teams currently in aren't likely to change, but things are starting to get interesting in the American Conference. Both the Assassins and the LOBs remain hot on the heels of the Pedros in the battle for AD1. A misstep by any of these teams likely results in a shuffling of playoff seeds. The Cocks are pretty secure in the #2 seed, but the 1, 3, and 4 seeds are still very much unsettled.
National Conference:
- Amesbury Lake Armadillos (7-1) – The Armadillos sat in the 3 seed for a couple of days this week, until a scoring correction gave them a W and pushed them ahead of the Turtleheads. Their division lead remains at 1.
- Wings of Pastrami (4-4) – The WOPs, losers of 2 straight, still sit atop the only division without a winning team. This position is precarious, though, as they lead by 1 over their division mates.
- Floating Turtleheads (6-2) – The Turtle heads keep applying pressure to the Armadillos, remaining within a game. (They actually have a 23-point advantage in total score.) The Turtle heads have won 3 straight, and got a taste of first place before the Armadillos received their miraculous post-week win.
- Afton Creek Monsters (3-5) – After scoring nearly 200 points last week, the Monsters padded their scoring lead over the Pricks and moved within 1 of the division-leading WOPs.
Outside looking in:
- Cottonwood Hills Pricks (3-5) – Despite trailing the Monsters by 87 total points, the Pricks are still very much in the thick of things. An 87-point deficit is not yet daunting, with five games left in the regular season, and the Pricks trail the WOPs by only 1 game in the division.
- Reflection Ra-Tards (2-6) – The Ra-Tards tasted victory again, but at this point they need to pray for an epic meltdown from the Armadillos, as they trail the next lowest-scoring team (the WOPs) by nearly 184 points. If that meltdown is going to happen, it needs to happen this week, as one more win by the Armadillos eliminates the Ra-Tards from the record-based playoff spot.
The National Division 1 remains interesting. Currently the WOPs are the 2 seed from the National Conference by way of their division 1 lead, but if they end in a three-way tie within their division, they might miss out on the playoffs, as they trail both the Monsters and the Pricks in total score. The difference is small, though (only about 100 points behind the Monsters and 16 behind the Pricks), so there's plenty of time to change this. To avoid any scare, though, the WOPs need to keep putting up W's.
Wednesday, October 28, 2009
Week 8 Playoff Picture
After seven games, here we are:
American Conference:
- Team Vote 4 Pedro (6-1) – Takes over the top spot after beating the Cocks last week.
Has a 2-game division lead over the Assassins and LOBs. - Fighting Cocks (5-2) – Falls to #2 after picking up their second loss. Has the largest divisional lead of any division leader, up 3 over the second place Boobs.
- Avalon Park Assassins (4-3) – Tied with division rival LOBs for the record-based playoff spot, the Assassins are here based on their total points. Despite seeing their overall average score drop by nearly five points, the Assassins still lead the league in scoring and lead the next closest non-division leader by more than 170 points.
- The Legend of Bo (4-3) – Increased their lead over the Boobs, now holding a 97-point advantage.
Outside looking in:
- Estelle Getty's Boobs (2-5) – The Boobs will need to pick up the scoring, with time running out on their chances based on their record.
- Auburn Hills Alley Cats (0-7) – Their playoff hopes continue to get bleaker. They are not mathematically eliminated based on record and there's always the hope that they blow up points-wise (they're 144 points out of the last playoff spot).
This picture hasn't changed much, other than the top two teams swapping places. In fact, these teams actually strengthened their playoff chances this past week.
National Conference:
- Amesbury Lake Armadillos (6-1) – Still feeling the heat from the Turtleheads with a 1-game lead in the ND2, but won a big matchup against the WOPs last weekend.
- Wings of Pastrami (4-3) – ND1 lead shrunk to one game after a loss to the Armadillos and a Pricks victory.
- Floating Turtleheads (5-2) – Continuing their strong play, the Turtleheads trail the Armadillos by a game, yet lead the conference in scoring.
- Afton Creek Monsters (2-5) – Saw about 10 points shaved off their lead in total points over the Pricks.
Outside looking in:
- Cottonwood Hills Pricks (3-4) – Still 2 games back of the WOPs, but a little closer to the 4-seed after gaining some ground on the Monsters.
- Reflection Ra-Tards (1-6) – The lowest scoring team in the league also faces a 5-game deficit within the division. 192+ points out of the last playoff spot.
The National Division 1 is shaping up to be a very intriguing matchup. No team has run away with the division, and there is only about 30 points difference between the top team (WOPs) and the bottom team (Pricks, scoring-wise). With the Armadillos and the Turtleheads looking in good shape, if things hold, we're going to have three fairly even teams fighting for two playoff spots.
Thursday, October 22, 2009
Week 7 Hawkins Power Rankings
- Assassins (3-3, last week's rank: 1) – All the Assassins did in a Week 6 loss to the Legend of Bo was increase their league-leading scoring average to 169.9 per game. The record is deceptive—the Assassins have yet to put up under 130 and have cracked the 190 mark three times, something no other team has done. To put this in perspective, half the league's teams have yet to even reach that mark once. Concern: This team has pinned its hopes on the Texans' offense (Schaub, Slaton, and Johnson). If the Texans falter, will the Assassins?
- Wings of Pastrami (4-2, last week's rank: 6) – The WOPs have reeled off three straight W's, with last week's 200+ point outing being their most impressive of the year (and that was without starting QB Tony Romoand star WR Calvin Johnson). This makes them the highest risers on this week's HPR. As long as this team's stable of WRs continues to produce, it should put up big numbers. Concern: How confident can a team feel about its playoff run with Pierre Thomas and Clinton Portis as the guys at RB? **EDITOR'S NOTE: This was written prior to the WOPs trade of Romo and Portis for Warner and Jacobs, but you might be able to substitute Jacobs for Portis in the above concern, at this point, since Jacobs has yet to get untracked.**
- Cocks (5-1, last week's rank: 3) – Week 6 illustrated some of the concerns we've had with this team—Benson and NYG's Steve Smith were somewhat held in check, and the result was an "adequate" 120-point outing. That said, it was still a win (and it was done without Frank Gore), and it gave the Cocks a sizable 3-game division lead, setting this team up nicely for a playoff push. Concern: The same as last week: How comfortable are the Cocks relying on Cedric Benson and Steve Smith?
- Vote 4 Pedro (5-1, last week's rank: 4) – The Pedros put up their highest score of the week last week, making the HPR's look prophetic, as Brady and Welker exploded. Unfortunately, Brady and Welker don't face the Titans' D every week (and the Pats still have a bye week upcoming), but it's an encouraging sign. Brady alone can propel a team to success. Team him with an elite TE in Gates and an Ochocinco-of-old, and this team looks promising. Concern: There are several, as is the case with most of the teams from here on down the list. For one, the Ravens D/ST has looked pedestrian of late (the Pedros picked up the Bills from waivers this week, and that squad has only score ONE fewer fantasy point than the Ravens). Also, there are major question marks at RB, as LT put up a season high 11.5 points this week. Barber is the team's go-to back, but he's had some health issues lately. Can a team win without an elite RB?
- Armadillos (5-1, last week's ranking: 2) – We don't want to overreact to one bad week (and it was a bad one: sub-80 points bad), but the Week 6 loss illustrates the concerns this team has. Manning was on a bye and Peterson and Owen Daniels were the only Armadillos to put up more than 11 points. Now, Manning, Peterson, and the Vikes' D/ST (plus Daniels) is a good core, but this team needs all of those players to step up every week, and we all know what can happen when you rely on Peterson down the stretch. Concern: This team has only one WR in the top-40 in points scored, and that receiver, Burleson, has had only one 100-yd game and hasn't cracked the top-15, despite not having had a bye yet.
- Floating Turtleheads (4-2, last week's ranking: 6) – Not much has changed from last week following the Turtleheads big win over the Armadillos (which pulls them within a game of the division lead), though I suppose that alone could be a case for them being ahead of the Armadillos. This week could get ugly with Warner facing a tough Giants defense and Flacco on a bye, but with Hines Ward surpassing expectations and Michael Turner playing well (a TD in four straight games), things are holding steady for the Turtleheads. Concern: Brandon Jacobs has yet to crack the 100-yd mark and only has 1 TD; when the weather turns cold and teams look more to the running game (except the Patriots, apparently), does this affect a team relying heavily on the arm of Flacco and the hands of Ward, Vincent Jackson (although weather in SD may not be an issue), and Greg Jennings? **EDITOR'S NOTE: Again, the Turtleheads-WOP trade changes this things slightly, but not a lot.**
- Legend of Bo (3-3, last week's ranking: 7) – The bitter taste of Week 5's embarrassing 65-point loss still remains, despite a big win against the rival (and top-ranked) Assassins. The LOBs 200+ point output was the second time this team has reached 190 or more, a feat unmatched by any other team but the aforementioned Assassins. Until this team shows it on a consistent basis, though, they'll remain in the middle of a strong group of mid-tier teams, rankings-wise. Concern: Inconsistency and an underperforming WR corps. It's difficult to believe that a group consisting of Boldin, Braylon Edwards, Steve Smith, and DeSean Jackson has yet to produce a week-in, week-out threat.
- Cookie Monsters (2-4, last week's rankings: 8) – The Monsters thought their ranking last week was a little generous. Well, they could make a case that this week is a little too harsh, as this team has notched season-high scores in back-to-back weeks. The acquisition of Ben Roethlisberger has turned the Monster's fortunes around and made them a dangerous team to face. Concern: Outside of Roddy White, there's not a lot of WR depth on this team. Manningham's played well, but most of his value so far has been tied to his ability to produce TDs; can he keep that up?
- Pricks (2-4, last week's ranking: 9) – Like the Boobs below them, this team is actually performing adequately, scoring-wise. The Pricks have increased their score each of the last three weeks, yet all three were losing efforts. And before we get too excited about this scoring trend, we should mention that last week was a season high, and it was still a hair shy of 160 points. Concern: A popular preseason sleeper, Carson Palmer has yet to put up more than 275 yards passing and has thrown multiple TDs only twice. All this adds up to him being the 16th-ranked fantasy QB. Why do I say this? He's the Pricks' best QB.
- Estelle Getty's Boobs (2-4, last week's rank: 5) – The bubble burst a little on the Boobs, as they are the league's biggest fallers in the HPR this week. A week after putting up a season high 171.8 points, the Boobs sagged to a middling 101.5. There's still good talent on this team, so a run isn't out of the question, but for now, we must face the fact that this is a team that has yet to string together back-to-back wins. Concern: Amazingly, Ryan Grant has scored in double-digits every game this season; yet, the strongest RB on this team's roster is a backup, Giants RB Ahmad Bradshaw. The Boobs continue to need Forte to step up his production.
- Alley Cats (0-6, last week's ranking: 11) – The losing continues, as the Cats dropped another tough game, this time to the Pedros. Once again, the Cats put up a respectable score, going over the 140-pt threshold, yet they were, once again, outscored. The Cats have now have the highest points-against total in the league, at 999. To put that in perspective, only three other teams have had 900 or more points scored against them. Concern: For all that "respectable scoring," this team is still 11th in the league in total points, so while the Cats can perhaps hang with other teams (I wouldn't be surprised to see them get multiple Ws still this season), they're don't have the firepower to blow anyone out.
- Ra-Tards (1-5, last week's ranking: 12) – The Ra-Tards got back on the right side of 100 points this week, but couldn't out-duel the Monsters, dropping their 4th straight. Once again Brees was the main contributor, with nearly half of the Tards point total (no other player put up over 20). They don't face a team with a winning record again until Week 10, so maybe the Tards can establish some momentum. Concern: Westbrook and Parker have been major disappointments at the RB spot and the team's two best WRs, Cotchery and Harvin (that says something right there), are dinged up. Maybe Brees can put up 100 this week.
best / worst draft choices
Half way points are a good way to speak your mind and hedge your bets. If you say "this guy has been awesome" and then he sucks the rest of the way, we'll you we right at least half the time.
Round by round best / worst choices
1st round
Best - Mo Jones Drew
Worst - Matt Forte
2nd Round
Best - Ronnie Brown
Worst - Steve Smith (Car)
3rd Round
Best - Aaron Rogers
Worst - Roy E Williams
4th Round
Best - Vincent Jackson
Worst - Darren McFadden
5th Round
Best - Dallas Clark
Worst - Derrick Ward
6th Round
Best - Matt Schuab
Worst - Donnie Avery
7th Round
Best - Cedric Benson
Worst - Lendale White
8th Round
Best - Knowshon Moreno
Worst - Chris Wells
9th Round
Best - NY Giants D/ST
Worst - Michael Crabtree
10th Round
Best - R Mendenhall
Worst - Willis McGahee
11th Round
Best - Ben Rothlisburger
Worst - Earnest Graham
12th Round
Best - Joe Flacco
Worst - Chester Taylor
13th Round
Best - Colts HC
Worst - Chargers HC
14th Round
Best - Vernon Davis
Worst - TENN HC
15th Round
Best - Saints HC
Worst - Derrius Haywood Bay
16th Round
Best - Steve Smith (NYG)
Worst - Jake Delhomme
17th Round
Best - SF D/ST
Worst - Joey Galloway
18th Round
Best - ARI S/ST
Worst - Chad Pennington
19th Round
Best - Denver HC
Worst - Issac Bruce
20th Round
Best - Nate Washington
Worst - Michael Vick
Round by round best / worst choices
1st round
Best - Mo Jones Drew
Worst - Matt Forte
2nd Round
Best - Ronnie Brown
Worst - Steve Smith (Car)
3rd Round
Best - Aaron Rogers
Worst - Roy E Williams
4th Round
Best - Vincent Jackson
Worst - Darren McFadden
5th Round
Best - Dallas Clark
Worst - Derrick Ward
6th Round
Best - Matt Schuab
Worst - Donnie Avery
7th Round
Best - Cedric Benson
Worst - Lendale White
8th Round
Best - Knowshon Moreno
Worst - Chris Wells
9th Round
Best - NY Giants D/ST
Worst - Michael Crabtree
10th Round
Best - R Mendenhall
Worst - Willis McGahee
11th Round
Best - Ben Rothlisburger
Worst - Earnest Graham
12th Round
Best - Joe Flacco
Worst - Chester Taylor
13th Round
Best - Colts HC
Worst - Chargers HC
14th Round
Best - Vernon Davis
Worst - TENN HC
15th Round
Best - Saints HC
Worst - Derrius Haywood Bay
16th Round
Best - Steve Smith (NYG)
Worst - Jake Delhomme
17th Round
Best - SF D/ST
Worst - Joey Galloway
18th Round
Best - ARI S/ST
Worst - Chad Pennington
19th Round
Best - Denver HC
Worst - Issac Bruce
20th Round
Best - Nate Washington
Worst - Michael Vick
Tuesday, October 20, 2009
Week 7 Playoff Picture
Playoff Picture
We're nearly at the halfway point of the regular season (6 weeks down, 7 to go), and it's never too early to start thinking about the playoffs. (Okay, there probably is a time when it's too early, and we may still be in this time, but it's fun to look at anyway.) If the playoffs began today, here's the breakdown. (We'll update this weekly from here on out.)
American Conference:
- Fighting Cocks (5-1) – Owns the top spot by virtue of Division 2-leading 5-1 record and more total points than the Division 1-leading Pedros. Key matchup this week against the Pedros. Dark cloud: Has yet to face a team who currently has a winning record. (Opponents' record? 10-20)
- Team Vote 4 Pedro (5-1) – Trails the top-seeded Cocks by about 70 total points, with a key H2H matchup this week likely factoring into the playoff-seeding picture. Dark cloud: Only managed a split with divisional foe The Legend of Bo and trails the other divisional foe, the Assassins, by nearly 180 total points.
- Avalon Park Assassins (3-3) – Firmly settled into a playoff spot right now by way of total points; the Assassins have outscored the next closest team by over 100 points and have given the top-seeded Cocks their only loss. Dark cloud: All three of the Assassins' losses have come within the division, including a sweep at the hands of the Pedros.
- The Legend of Bo (3-3) – Leads Estelle Getty's Boobs by 65 total points to slide into the last spot. Dark cloud: Among the league, only the hapless Ra-Tards have had a lower scoring game than the LOB's Week 5 65-point disaster.
Outside looking in:
- Estelle Getty's Boobs (2-4) – Being 3 games back in the record department (and 0-2 against division-leading Cocks) means this team needs to score big in the coming weeks. Trails the LOBs by 65 total points.
- Auburn Hills Alley Cats (0-6) – Getting in based on record is probably a lost cause, at this point. The Alley Cats trail 4th-seed LOBs by a little over 100 points.
Oddity: If these rankings hold true, American Division 1 will send all three representatives to the playoffs.
National Conference:
- Amesbury Lake Armadillos (5-1) – Holds a one-game lead over 2nd-seeded Wings of Pastrami with a key H2H battle against them this week. Also leads the conference in scoring (despite a 79-point effort this week), so a playoff spot is looking good right now. Dark cloud: Has only a 1-game divisional lead over the Turtleheads and gained only a split in two H2H matchups against this divisional rival.
- Wings of Pastrami (4-2) – Leads ND1 by two games, is 3-1 in the division, and is presiding over a 3-game winning streak. After a victory over the Turtleheads last week, a win against the Armadillos this week pushes the WOPs into the top seed. Dark cloud: A 1.6-pt heartbreaker to division foe Pricks might factor into the playoff picture.
- Floating Turtleheads (4-2) – After a throttling of the division-leading Armadillos, the Turtleheads are now a game back in the division. They only trail the Armadillos by 11.5 total points and lead the 2nd-seeded WOPs by about 4 total points. Dark cloud: 3 of 4 wins have come against teams with a losing record.
- Afton Creek Monsters (2-4) – Two games off the mark, record-wise, the Monsters are in right now via their total score, which is 33.5 points better than the Pricks. This point spread over the Pricks was greatly aided by a 40.5 win over the Pricks in Week 5. Dark cloud: Faces only two more matchups against teams that currently have a losing record.
Outside looking in:
- Cottonwood Hills Pricks (2-4) – Two games back of the division lead and trailing the Monsters in total points. The Pricks face only two teams with a winning record (as of now) from here on out.
- Reflection Ra-Tards (1-5) – A four-game slide and back-to-back sub-55 point games means the playoff picture is bleak for this team no matter who you slice it. A matchup against the Pricks this week could provide a little momentum, though.
Oddity: Once again the American Division looks a little stronger than the National, as the National's best team, the Armadillos, has still scored about 51 points less than the American Division's #2 team and is only about 23 points better than the #4 seed from the American Division.
Interestingly enough, the schedule was set up to pit teams against their division early on, so all the games featuring divisional opponents are done. There are only a few games featuring teams from the same conference, so making up ground in the standings could become a little more difficult.
Thursday, October 15, 2009
New Hawkins Power Rankings
- Assassins (3-2) – The Assassins have the highest scoring average in the league (165/ppg), and this isn't the case of a team who has blown up a few weeks and had mediocre performances the rest of the time; the Assassins have yet to put up less than 130 in any week. The Assassins are the only team to post multiple 190+ point games, and they've done it with balance, with a top-10 fantasy scorer at every major position (i.e. everything but the kicker). Their downfall so far? Both losses have come to the division-leading Pedros. (And they should be embarrassed for starting JaMarcus Russell at any point in the season.)
- Armadillos (5-0) – The Armadillos, the three-headed monster of Manning, Peterson, and the Vikings D/ST, has carried this team to a perfect record. With these three in the lineup, big scores are always a possibility, and steady scores are nearly guaranteed. (The Armadillos have yet to score under 138.) Beyond those three players there is not a lot to get excited about with this team, although Owen Daniels will likely be a top-10 TE at the end of the year. Manning's bye week this week will tell us a lot about this team.
- Cocks (4-1) – I wanted to hedge and put them at a tie for the #2 spot, but I'm still having a hard time buying into the staying power of a team relying so heavily upon Cedric Benson. So far, though, Benson looks for real, and he's helped the Cocks reach at least 138 points every week. Benson is joined by the underrated Derrick Mason and the potential steal of the draft, Steve Smith (the one with the Giants) to make the Cocks a success story. The only reason this team is #3 and not #2 is that they're relying on some fairly unproven fantasy players, raising questions about the Cocks' future.
- Vote 4 Pedro (4-1) – In this team's two lowest-scoring contests, they split games with middle-of-the-pack Legend of Bo. Yet, the Pedros have found a way to beat the top-ranked Assassins twice, and also scored a W against those respectable Boobs of Estelle Getty. With the exception of Week 1, Brady hasn't looked very Brady-like. When he comes around (and it's a matter of when, not if), Wes Welker likely comes with him, and then this team looks even better.
- Estelle Getty's Boobs (2-3) – The Boobs have been real, if not yet spectacular. There's more talent on the roster than the team's two wins show, but it's only a matter of time before the combination of Matt Forte, Terrell Owens, Dwayne Bowe, and Matt Ryan start producing more W's. Of course, many if not all of those players have question marks, so this ranking might be more speculation than anything. In reality, this team's only wins have come against the lowly Alley Cats, but they've increased their output the last two weeks, a promising trend.
- Floating Turtleheads (3-2) – While Kurt Warner looks to have been overrated on draft day, Vincent Jackson, Hines Ward, and Joe Flacco have been good "finds" (if 4th and 5th rounders like Jackson and Ward can be classified as "finds"). The result of their play is a winning record for the Turtleheads, even if two of those wins have come against the struggling Ra-Tards.
- Wings of Pastrami (3-2) – The first team on this list with a sub-100 point game, the WOPs are an enigma. They'll put up 140 one week, only to score under 100 the next, then come back to put up 170 in the next. The WOPS beat the Turtleheads in their only H2H matchup, so there might be room for controversy here. The team has made a series of trades in an attempt to patch some potential holes (perhaps a sign that their own owner is not yet confident in his team), but if Romo doesn't play with more consistency, it could be an interesting year for the WOPs. As of now, another championship run looks questionable.
- Legend of Bo (2-3) – A tough loss against the rival Assassins, in which the LOBs put up nearly 195 points, makes the W/L record a bit deceiving, but that doesn't hide the fact that this team put up an embarrassing 65 points last week. The Ray Rice for Steve Smith (the CAR one) trade was a risky gamble, but if it works, this team has one fewer hole, and should put up consistent numbers on the other side of the bye weeks. A payback win against the Assassins this week might help this team move up the rankings.
- Cookie Monsters (1-4) – This team got on the right side of the win column for the first time last week with an impressive 180-point output. Roethlisberger has been huge, and Roddy White finally put up a big week, so maybe things are turning around for the Monsters. That said, the team is only 1-3 within the division, so more 180-pt efforts are what it will likely take to make a playoff trip a reality.
- Pricks (2-3) – The Pricks are actually 2-1 in their division, with wins against each division opponent. However, they've yet to score over 140 (okay, 140.1 to be exact) and they lost a key H2H matchup against the Monsters last week. They're also the lowest scoring team in their division. Finally, the roster is a bit of a mess with four QBs and Michael Crabtree all languishing on the bench. Crabtree sees his first NFL action this week; does this mean better things are ahead for the Pricks?
- Alley Cats (0-5) – The first of the two cellar-dwelling Richardson Bros., the Alley Cats have yet to post a W. However, this team has been a hard-luck loser in a couple of contests, putting up 150+ and 140+ in losing efforts. Manning the Younger has proven to be a better fantasy QB than many anticipated, and if his Giants can keep from blowing folks out, that asset may be even greater for the Cats. Acquiring fantasy's #3 RB in Ray Rice may also give this team a boost.
- Ra-Tards (1-4) – Where to begin? Has there ever been a fantasy team whose success relied on one player more than the Tards? This team could be named the Breeses. As Brees has slowed, so have the Tards. The decision to designate Brees as a keeper looked genius after a 180-pt effort in Week 1 (of which Brees contributed 76.6!), even though that outage wasn't enough to produce a W. However, Brees has slowed in recent weeks, and the Tards have failed to crack 54 points in the last two contests. As a result, the Tards have scored nearly 100 points less than the next lowest-scoring team. The Tards have faced the most difficult schedule in the league (opponents' record: 19-6), so perhaps things will get turned around in the weeks ahead.
Wednesday, August 19, 2009
potential keepers that we passed on
this list inst meant to be a wouldve/shouldve/couldva. Just a list of keepers that would have made for interesting conversation. In no way am I condoning the keeping of a D/ST, kicker or even a TE.
estelle getty's boobs - had derrick ward in the 17 round. His new role would make this #2 rb a crazy value.
Avalon Park Assassins - had washington D/ST in the 18 round. they should be good this year with the new $100 million pants of Albert Hayesworth.
team vote 4 pedro - no one
Creek Cookies - had roddy white in the 5th round. A stud #1 wr in that round might have allowed him to focus on QBs/RBs in the first few rounds.
Wings of Pastrami - Had Matt Forte in the 7th round, which is incredible value. Also had Owen Daniels in the 11th and could have made a case for MJ Drew as a 2nd rounder since he'll probably go #1 overall this year.
Bourne Ulceration - a case could be made for his 6th, 8th and 9th round picks. Bowe, Ronnie Brown and LenDale White would have all provided good value and good depth to the team.
Northeast Narcotics - In a PPR league, a case could be made for Derrick Mason in the 12th, but not over Eddie Royal.
Floating Turtleheads - a strong case could be made for Kevin Walter in the 14th round. any time you can get a every week starter in those teen rounds, you have to at least think about it.
Hoof Hearted - Perhaps PITT D/ST would have been a nice foundation, since it looks like they will be the #1 D/ST off the board this year. Cant argue putting AP on your team though.
Fighting Cocks - Chad Pennington is a super solid back up qb. And would have only cost a 13th round pick. Interesting that he wasn't kept actually.
Bradford Brawlers - donnie avery, if he hadnt broke his foot, would have been a real sneaky sleeper with an 18th round pick. But Calvin Johnson (perhaps the #1 WR this year) could have been kept with a 3rd round pick. Not too bad.
WM Molesters - if you really liked mcfadden, you could have kept him, but wouldn't have gained any value really.
estelle getty's boobs - had derrick ward in the 17 round. His new role would make this #2 rb a crazy value.
Avalon Park Assassins - had washington D/ST in the 18 round. they should be good this year with the new $100 million pants of Albert Hayesworth.
team vote 4 pedro - no one
Creek Cookies - had roddy white in the 5th round. A stud #1 wr in that round might have allowed him to focus on QBs/RBs in the first few rounds.
Wings of Pastrami - Had Matt Forte in the 7th round, which is incredible value. Also had Owen Daniels in the 11th and could have made a case for MJ Drew as a 2nd rounder since he'll probably go #1 overall this year.
Bourne Ulceration - a case could be made for his 6th, 8th and 9th round picks. Bowe, Ronnie Brown and LenDale White would have all provided good value and good depth to the team.
Northeast Narcotics - In a PPR league, a case could be made for Derrick Mason in the 12th, but not over Eddie Royal.
Floating Turtleheads - a strong case could be made for Kevin Walter in the 14th round. any time you can get a every week starter in those teen rounds, you have to at least think about it.
Hoof Hearted - Perhaps PITT D/ST would have been a nice foundation, since it looks like they will be the #1 D/ST off the board this year. Cant argue putting AP on your team though.
Fighting Cocks - Chad Pennington is a super solid back up qb. And would have only cost a 13th round pick. Interesting that he wasn't kept actually.
Bradford Brawlers - donnie avery, if he hadnt broke his foot, would have been a real sneaky sleeper with an 18th round pick. But Calvin Johnson (perhaps the #1 WR this year) could have been kept with a 3rd round pick. Not too bad.
WM Molesters - if you really liked mcfadden, you could have kept him, but wouldn't have gained any value really.
2009 kept player rankings
well we haven't drafted yet so we can determine anything fun from that (Steals and reaches, etc.) Divisions havent been set so we cant say which ones will the toughest. We dont even know if all the team names have been finalized, so we cant even rank those. Soooooo......
Lets rank the keepers.
#1 - Steve Slaton - Man these rankings are biased! Well, hard to argue with a potential First Round draft pick with 50 catches that only costs a 14th rounder. Slaton could be a one year wonder or the next coming of tiki barber. We'll see soon. But the value is incredible
#2 - Chris Johnson - Again, tough to argue with a first rounder that can catch 50 passes that only costs the owner a 13th rounder. The only knock is how many TDs does he lose to the LenDale "Slim Fast" White? If the speed demon Johnson can crack 10+ TDs and the same numbers from last year, it could be the sweetest pick in league history!
#3 - Matt Ryan - no one expected that type of rookie season. not even his owners. but after week 5 or so, Ryan looked like the type of keeper pick that would pay off even more the next season. Adam has close to a "no-brainer" of a starting QB. and it only cost him a 13th rounder. nice.
#4 - Eddie Royal - Another one of those diamonds found in the beer induced fuzzy rounds, Royal is a great #2 WR for the cost of a few pennies (13th round). In a PPR league, finding a value like this is huge.
#5 - DeAngelo Williams - I may have my doubts about Williams repeating last year's numbers but that doesn't mean 1) I don't believe he will be a top 10 back or 2) he isnt an awesome value for only a 7th rounder.
#6 - Adrian Peterson - The value isnt as great as the other top keepers, but if you get to keep the #1 guy at the #12 slot, its good value and great strategy.
#7 - Brandon Jacobs - the bruiser from NY is lock for most of the TDs and yardage that comes from the ground in the Big Apple. He might not catch a lot of passes, but he is a solid #1 RB from the low low price of a 7th rounder.
#8 - Kevin Smith - RBs not in a RBBC are hard to find. Even though he stayed hidden during the Lions stinker season, smith had a nice year and has plenty of room to grow. Playing on turf behind a new line and QB, this keeper could vault his way to a solid #1 RB by the end of the season. Not bad for just a 6th round pick.
#9 - Matt Cassell - The only FA keeper in the league, Cassell is a bit of mystery still. He had a great as a replacement, but was also in a great system. Will he recreate that magic in a rebuilding KC? Giving up a 10th rounder is worth the price to find out.
#10 - Jay Cutler - Cutler was a beast last season. But now he moves to a more run-focused offensive and has a DEF that can win games for him, instead of his gun-slinging arm. Will his stats go down this year? Probably. But again, an 8th rounder for a starting QB is not too shabby.
#11 - Dree Brees - QBs are pretty valuable in our league and Brees is probably the best of the bunch. But could Eric have gotten him with his 2nd round pick without keeping him? Probably not and I guess he decided it was worth the cost and has a solid foundation to start his team.
12 - blank - Really? you cant find anyone to keep Pate? Really?
Lets rank the keepers.
#1 - Steve Slaton - Man these rankings are biased! Well, hard to argue with a potential First Round draft pick with 50 catches that only costs a 14th rounder. Slaton could be a one year wonder or the next coming of tiki barber. We'll see soon. But the value is incredible
#2 - Chris Johnson - Again, tough to argue with a first rounder that can catch 50 passes that only costs the owner a 13th rounder. The only knock is how many TDs does he lose to the LenDale "Slim Fast" White? If the speed demon Johnson can crack 10+ TDs and the same numbers from last year, it could be the sweetest pick in league history!
#3 - Matt Ryan - no one expected that type of rookie season. not even his owners. but after week 5 or so, Ryan looked like the type of keeper pick that would pay off even more the next season. Adam has close to a "no-brainer" of a starting QB. and it only cost him a 13th rounder. nice.
#4 - Eddie Royal - Another one of those diamonds found in the beer induced fuzzy rounds, Royal is a great #2 WR for the cost of a few pennies (13th round). In a PPR league, finding a value like this is huge.
#5 - DeAngelo Williams - I may have my doubts about Williams repeating last year's numbers but that doesn't mean 1) I don't believe he will be a top 10 back or 2) he isnt an awesome value for only a 7th rounder.
#6 - Adrian Peterson - The value isnt as great as the other top keepers, but if you get to keep the #1 guy at the #12 slot, its good value and great strategy.
#7 - Brandon Jacobs - the bruiser from NY is lock for most of the TDs and yardage that comes from the ground in the Big Apple. He might not catch a lot of passes, but he is a solid #1 RB from the low low price of a 7th rounder.
#8 - Kevin Smith - RBs not in a RBBC are hard to find. Even though he stayed hidden during the Lions stinker season, smith had a nice year and has plenty of room to grow. Playing on turf behind a new line and QB, this keeper could vault his way to a solid #1 RB by the end of the season. Not bad for just a 6th round pick.
#9 - Matt Cassell - The only FA keeper in the league, Cassell is a bit of mystery still. He had a great as a replacement, but was also in a great system. Will he recreate that magic in a rebuilding KC? Giving up a 10th rounder is worth the price to find out.
#10 - Jay Cutler - Cutler was a beast last season. But now he moves to a more run-focused offensive and has a DEF that can win games for him, instead of his gun-slinging arm. Will his stats go down this year? Probably. But again, an 8th rounder for a starting QB is not too shabby.
#11 - Dree Brees - QBs are pretty valuable in our league and Brees is probably the best of the bunch. But could Eric have gotten him with his 2nd round pick without keeping him? Probably not and I guess he decided it was worth the cost and has a solid foundation to start his team.
12 - blank - Really? you cant find anyone to keep Pate? Really?
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