Thursday, December 10, 2009

Round 1 Match up - Amesbury Lake Armadillos v. Afton Creek Cookie Monsters

Amesbury Lake Armadillos vs. Afton Creek Cookie Monsters
This matchup features the # 1 seed that is Ninth in the league in points scored and has lost 3 in a row versus a team that started 0-4 but won 4 of its last 6 with a nice weekly average. Even with a 10 point bonus for the Armadillos, could an upset be popping its head out? Let’s take a look.

QBs
Peyton Manning v. Ben Roethlisberger
The ultimate fantasy QB goes head to head with a signal caller who has been up and down all year. Manning ranks as the #1 at his position, but has slowed down as of late. No bonuses in his last 3 games, Manning now faces a Denver D/ST who can be thrown on. Can he show up big in Round1? Roethlisberger has been high (60 points) and low (16 points) and his matchup is sugary sweet versus an awful Cleveland team. Expect big things again.

Prediction – Manning gets back to normal with a bonus and a few tds. Guess what though? Big Ben doesn’t; not with bad weather, no Hines Ward and probably a huge lead by halftime.

RBs
Adrian Peterson v. DeAngelo Willams / Thomas Jones
When you only have 1 RB, it might as well be AP. Peterson has not been himself lately; he is only running on 3.0 yards per rush. Peterson will get to run on CIN D/ST who is without their top run stuffer. Good things should happen. Jones has been pretty good after people thought he might be part of a time share all year. He should be expected to hit a bonus or grab a TD each game. D Williams was hurt last week but is also can do some damage against the right team; NE D/ST can be run on.

Prediction – Peterson runs like a man possessed, bum ankle and all. He’ll get a bonus and a TD. Williams won’t get all the carries and it will show in the box score. Jones though should be able to showcase his skills since Sanchez wont there and TB sucks. He’ll get a bonus and some TDs as well.

WRs
Roy Williams/Nate Burleson/Pierre Garcon/Jeremy Maclin v. Roddy White/Devin Thomas/Mario Manningham

Though this group may not list any future Hall of Famers, it does boast a few players who have garnered a few big games and show up huge when the match up is right. The strength for the Armadillos is the strong play of Garcon, Manning’s new favorite target, and Burleson/Williams when they decide to show up. Given the matchups, all should get close to a bonus. Roddy White is forced to catch passes from Chris Redman, which doesn’t seem like a good way to score points, but it didn’t hurt last week. With a ATL team that is sure to be down and maybe without Burner Turner, White should expect another big game against the Big Easy (he scored 29 last time against them.) The rest of the WR corps for the Cookie Monsters is a crumbly mess; they get enough targets to be starter worthy, but who knows.

Prediction – The 4 pack of WRs for the Armadillos does some damage, with Garcon and grabbing the bonus and continuing to be a late season stud. Williams and Burleson come close to the bonus but things are too spread in their respective offensives to be that greedy. Roddy White will get the bonus, but the other WRs wont clear 15 points combined.

TEs
Visanthe Shiancoe v. Dallas Clark
When the season started, no one knew how to say “Visanthe Shiancoe” let alone think he’d be starting the playoffs. When he score, which is often, it’s awesome. When he doesn’t, it’s not much to look at. He gets red zone targets, and those are what truly matters for TEs as the bonus is hard to come by. What else can you say about D Clark? Probably the most consistent TE in the league, the only time he suffers is when teams make him priority #1 to stop, but that’s hard to do when the Colts have so many other weapons. He plays Denver this week, which I the second best team against TEs. So who will the battle?

Prediction – No reason Shiancoe shouldn’t get his TD and some catches, expect a game with points north of 12 points. Clark will get stymied by the Broncos D/ST and disappoint his owners in round 1; anything over 8 points would be “real nice, Clark” (make an okay hand signal when you say this.)

D/STs
Minnesota Vikings v. Cincin Bengals
A strange, but very important, battle since these teams plays each other this week. Minnesota has been great all year as well. They never had that AMAZING 40+ point game and have scored negative points twice as well, but no group can be counted on for a strong showing week in and week out like this squad. The Bengals have been a nice surprise this year, scoring 10+ points in 12 of 13 games. But without Odom and facing Farve’s crew on the turf, it might get ugly.

Prediction – Cincinnati keeps this one close and low scoring; until the 2nd half. And then things get ugly. Yards and points will pile up, though 2 picks from Farve seems likely too; expect around 12 points. Minnesota fumbles sacks and picks its way to big game at a home. Anything less than 18 points would be disappointing.

Ks
Ryan Longwell v Rob Bironas
An interesting starting note – Longwell will be kicking against Cincinnati who the Cookie Monsters will be deploying as their D/ST. Points for Longwell means less points for Bengals D/ST. Hard to know who to cheer for. Bironas has been a big benefactor when the Titans were on their winning streak. He’ll be good again as the Titans roll again this week

Prediction - Longwell should be good for at least 10 points, much to the dismay of the Cookie Monsters. And Bironas? Kicking against the Rams? Indoors? Expect 10 plus point as well.

Final prediction –
It’s gonna be close. Each team has studs hat need to show and question marks that need to be answered. It’s hard to bet against a team with Manning and AP, but the Monsters do have some studs that can ring your bell as well. In the end, a big game by the Vikings D/ST and a surprise big game from Burleson is the difference maker.

Amesbury Lake Armadillos – 156 to Afton Creek Cookie Monsters - 142

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