Wednesday, November 19, 2008

An Enigma Wrapped in a Riddle and Smothered in a Speacial Sauce: The National Conference Playoff Picture

If the American Conference is fairly well settled, the National Conference will go down to the wire with some exciting matchups in the regular season's last two weeks. It makes my head hurt thinking about the possible W/L combinations and the seeds that go with them, but here is an attempt at a breakdown:

Team Vote 4 Pedro - Currently holds the #1 seed, but anything can happen. If Team Pedro goes undefeated in the final two weeks, they hold the top spot. There is a scenario where Team Pedro misses the playoffs altogether. (This happens if they finish the year 7-6, the Brawlers finish 8-5 or better, the Molesters finish 7-6 or better, and the Ramas finish 7-6 or better and continue to outscore Team Pedro.)

Most intriguing matchup remaining: Both weeks. Week 12 against the Molesters will likely determine who gets the top spot in the NC and the 10-point bonus that comes with it, even though there is an outside chance the Ramas could still capture the #1 seed. Week 13 against the Brawlers could determine the division winner and its secured playoff spot.

West Meadows Molesters – This team currently holds the #2 seed. Of all of the NC playoff contenders, the Molesters have the lowest average score, meaning there’s a chance they could miss the post-season if they stumble. However, they need just one win in the last two games to secure a divisional title and the playoff spot.

Most intriguing matchup remaining: Week 12 against Team Pedro.

Bradford Brawlers – This team is the current #3 seed, but is being attacked on all sides (their record and their average score). The team is in the playoffs right now via a H2H win against the Ramas, but if they ultimately finish with a record worse than the Ramas and can’t catch the Narcotics in total points, they would miss the playoffs. Amazingly, if this team wins out and Team Pedro drops their final two contests, the Brawlers could slide all the way up to the #1 seed, courtesy of a H2H win over the Molesters. Bottom line: This team should be rooting against the Ramas.

Most intriguing matchup remaining: Both weeks. While the Week 13 contest could decide the division winner, the Week 12 contest against the Narcotics might be more important, even if that importance is related to the two teams’ scores rather than the actual W/L outcome. The Brawlers needs to make up a little ground on the Narcotics in the scoring department, and this H2H matchup will make it easy for them to scoreboard watch.

Huey Ramas – This team is the current #4 seed based on average score. However, there is a scenario where they could still capture the #1 seed. (They win out, Team Pedro finishes 8-5, and the Molesters finish 7-6.) This is the highest scoring team in the NC, so their playoff spot looks pretty safe, it’s just a matter of finding out where they finish.

Most intriguing matchup remaining: Week 13 against the Assassins. It’s the two divisions’ highest scoring teams going H2H. The Assassins are still hoping for a #1 seed, too, so a loss here would hinder, if not completely extinguish, that goal.

Northeast Narcotics – This team is currently not in the playoffs, but was in as recently as last week. Since they hold a higher scoring average than the current #3 seed Brawlers, they should be the Ramas biggest fans, as they need the Ramas to steal that #3 seed based on record. There is no scenario where this team gets in on record.

Most intriguing matchup remaining: Week 12 against the Brawlers.

Floating Turtleheads – This team is currently not in the playoffs. This doesn’t mean the Turtleheads have nothing to play for, though. Their remaining games are against teams very much in the thick of things (the Ramas and the Molesters), so they could wreak havoc. Also, a win or two might prevent the Turtleheads from having to pony up someone's entry fee next year, as they only trail EGB by one game and they own the potential “cellar-dweller” tiebreak over the Cocks with their H2H win.

Most intriguing matchup remaining: Week 13 against the Molesters. A Molester’s win over Team Pedro in Week 12 makes this matchup much less significant, but if the Molesters have to have a win in Week 13 to make the playoffs (a possible scenario), the Turtleheads could be the ultimate spoiler.

5 comments:

jgrenn said...

tim, do you think quinn's broken finger will be troublesome for edwards? it cant help. will you start him the rest of the year?

Tim said...

I'm not too worried about Quinn's finger affecting Edwards; I'm more worried about Edwards' hands affecting Edwards. Dude has a ton of drops this year. Quinn will go to him a lot regardless of the busted finger or not.

As for starting him, he looked good against the Bills, and he's got a decent matchup this week and in Week 16 (cross my fingers!), so I won't say I won't start him again.

jgrenn said...

i like the optimism that you can reach the championship of nothing. Has a team outside of the top 6 in the HPR won the whole thing before? :)

Tim said...

I'll stick with my unfounded optimism. I do have some nice playoff matchups should it get that far.

jgrenn said...

from espn chats -

John (Syracuse): Brady's finger affect B. Edwards

SportsNation Jim McCormick: I completed this sentence internally, and I don't think it factors really- Quinn starts and will look to Edwards against a weak Hou secondary (even though Thomas is a nice corner).