this list inst meant to be a wouldve/shouldve/couldva. Just a list of keepers that would have made for interesting conversation. In no way am I condoning the keeping of a D/ST, kicker or even a TE.
estelle getty's boobs - had derrick ward in the 17 round. His new role would make this #2 rb a crazy value.
Avalon Park Assassins - had washington D/ST in the 18 round. they should be good this year with the new $100 million pants of Albert Hayesworth.
team vote 4 pedro - no one
Creek Cookies - had roddy white in the 5th round. A stud #1 wr in that round might have allowed him to focus on QBs/RBs in the first few rounds.
Wings of Pastrami - Had Matt Forte in the 7th round, which is incredible value. Also had Owen Daniels in the 11th and could have made a case for MJ Drew as a 2nd rounder since he'll probably go #1 overall this year.
Bourne Ulceration - a case could be made for his 6th, 8th and 9th round picks. Bowe, Ronnie Brown and LenDale White would have all provided good value and good depth to the team.
Northeast Narcotics - In a PPR league, a case could be made for Derrick Mason in the 12th, but not over Eddie Royal.
Floating Turtleheads - a strong case could be made for Kevin Walter in the 14th round. any time you can get a every week starter in those teen rounds, you have to at least think about it.
Hoof Hearted - Perhaps PITT D/ST would have been a nice foundation, since it looks like they will be the #1 D/ST off the board this year. Cant argue putting AP on your team though.
Fighting Cocks - Chad Pennington is a super solid back up qb. And would have only cost a 13th round pick. Interesting that he wasn't kept actually.
Bradford Brawlers - donnie avery, if he hadnt broke his foot, would have been a real sneaky sleeper with an 18th round pick. But Calvin Johnson (perhaps the #1 WR this year) could have been kept with a 3rd round pick. Not too bad.
WM Molesters - if you really liked mcfadden, you could have kept him, but wouldn't have gained any value really.
Wednesday, August 19, 2009
2009 kept player rankings
well we haven't drafted yet so we can determine anything fun from that (Steals and reaches, etc.) Divisions havent been set so we cant say which ones will the toughest. We dont even know if all the team names have been finalized, so we cant even rank those. Soooooo......
Lets rank the keepers.
#1 - Steve Slaton - Man these rankings are biased! Well, hard to argue with a potential First Round draft pick with 50 catches that only costs a 14th rounder. Slaton could be a one year wonder or the next coming of tiki barber. We'll see soon. But the value is incredible
#2 - Chris Johnson - Again, tough to argue with a first rounder that can catch 50 passes that only costs the owner a 13th rounder. The only knock is how many TDs does he lose to the LenDale "Slim Fast" White? If the speed demon Johnson can crack 10+ TDs and the same numbers from last year, it could be the sweetest pick in league history!
#3 - Matt Ryan - no one expected that type of rookie season. not even his owners. but after week 5 or so, Ryan looked like the type of keeper pick that would pay off even more the next season. Adam has close to a "no-brainer" of a starting QB. and it only cost him a 13th rounder. nice.
#4 - Eddie Royal - Another one of those diamonds found in the beer induced fuzzy rounds, Royal is a great #2 WR for the cost of a few pennies (13th round). In a PPR league, finding a value like this is huge.
#5 - DeAngelo Williams - I may have my doubts about Williams repeating last year's numbers but that doesn't mean 1) I don't believe he will be a top 10 back or 2) he isnt an awesome value for only a 7th rounder.
#6 - Adrian Peterson - The value isnt as great as the other top keepers, but if you get to keep the #1 guy at the #12 slot, its good value and great strategy.
#7 - Brandon Jacobs - the bruiser from NY is lock for most of the TDs and yardage that comes from the ground in the Big Apple. He might not catch a lot of passes, but he is a solid #1 RB from the low low price of a 7th rounder.
#8 - Kevin Smith - RBs not in a RBBC are hard to find. Even though he stayed hidden during the Lions stinker season, smith had a nice year and has plenty of room to grow. Playing on turf behind a new line and QB, this keeper could vault his way to a solid #1 RB by the end of the season. Not bad for just a 6th round pick.
#9 - Matt Cassell - The only FA keeper in the league, Cassell is a bit of mystery still. He had a great as a replacement, but was also in a great system. Will he recreate that magic in a rebuilding KC? Giving up a 10th rounder is worth the price to find out.
#10 - Jay Cutler - Cutler was a beast last season. But now he moves to a more run-focused offensive and has a DEF that can win games for him, instead of his gun-slinging arm. Will his stats go down this year? Probably. But again, an 8th rounder for a starting QB is not too shabby.
#11 - Dree Brees - QBs are pretty valuable in our league and Brees is probably the best of the bunch. But could Eric have gotten him with his 2nd round pick without keeping him? Probably not and I guess he decided it was worth the cost and has a solid foundation to start his team.
12 - blank - Really? you cant find anyone to keep Pate? Really?
Lets rank the keepers.
#1 - Steve Slaton - Man these rankings are biased! Well, hard to argue with a potential First Round draft pick with 50 catches that only costs a 14th rounder. Slaton could be a one year wonder or the next coming of tiki barber. We'll see soon. But the value is incredible
#2 - Chris Johnson - Again, tough to argue with a first rounder that can catch 50 passes that only costs the owner a 13th rounder. The only knock is how many TDs does he lose to the LenDale "Slim Fast" White? If the speed demon Johnson can crack 10+ TDs and the same numbers from last year, it could be the sweetest pick in league history!
#3 - Matt Ryan - no one expected that type of rookie season. not even his owners. but after week 5 or so, Ryan looked like the type of keeper pick that would pay off even more the next season. Adam has close to a "no-brainer" of a starting QB. and it only cost him a 13th rounder. nice.
#4 - Eddie Royal - Another one of those diamonds found in the beer induced fuzzy rounds, Royal is a great #2 WR for the cost of a few pennies (13th round). In a PPR league, finding a value like this is huge.
#5 - DeAngelo Williams - I may have my doubts about Williams repeating last year's numbers but that doesn't mean 1) I don't believe he will be a top 10 back or 2) he isnt an awesome value for only a 7th rounder.
#6 - Adrian Peterson - The value isnt as great as the other top keepers, but if you get to keep the #1 guy at the #12 slot, its good value and great strategy.
#7 - Brandon Jacobs - the bruiser from NY is lock for most of the TDs and yardage that comes from the ground in the Big Apple. He might not catch a lot of passes, but he is a solid #1 RB from the low low price of a 7th rounder.
#8 - Kevin Smith - RBs not in a RBBC are hard to find. Even though he stayed hidden during the Lions stinker season, smith had a nice year and has plenty of room to grow. Playing on turf behind a new line and QB, this keeper could vault his way to a solid #1 RB by the end of the season. Not bad for just a 6th round pick.
#9 - Matt Cassell - The only FA keeper in the league, Cassell is a bit of mystery still. He had a great as a replacement, but was also in a great system. Will he recreate that magic in a rebuilding KC? Giving up a 10th rounder is worth the price to find out.
#10 - Jay Cutler - Cutler was a beast last season. But now he moves to a more run-focused offensive and has a DEF that can win games for him, instead of his gun-slinging arm. Will his stats go down this year? Probably. But again, an 8th rounder for a starting QB is not too shabby.
#11 - Dree Brees - QBs are pretty valuable in our league and Brees is probably the best of the bunch. But could Eric have gotten him with his 2nd round pick without keeping him? Probably not and I guess he decided it was worth the cost and has a solid foundation to start his team.
12 - blank - Really? you cant find anyone to keep Pate? Really?
Tuesday, December 30, 2008
Team-by-team analysis: The Bourne Ulceration
It seems like a good time to do a little team-by-team analysis, since I have some down time.* Some of this was done earlier in the season, but we now have all the details for support. I'll start with my own tea,, because I'm nothing if not self-serving.
*It should be noted that I'm at my in-laws in Iowa, which means two things: 1) This time would probably be better spent socializing; and 2) I'm on an incredibly slow internet connection owing to the rather middle-of-nowhereness location that is the in-laws place.
MVP
Wes Welker -- It would be easy to say Peyton Manning, here, but that seemed a little too obvious. Plus, Manning was very unManning-like early on, and had he contributed a little more, then, my team's W/L record might be more impressive. Welker, on the other hand, was gold in our PPR league -- he had only one game during the fantasy season, both regular and post, with less than 6 catches -- and added 4 100-yd games in the final 7 and a TD in each of last two. Granted, I was out of the playoffs for the final two, but it was still nice to see him add TDs. For a team that looked like it had a great WR corps to start the year, this position was a real weakness. Welker was the lone bright spot.
LVP
Was there a bigger bust than Torry Holt? Players like Kevin Walter, DeSean Jackson, Ted Ginn, and even his own teammate, Donnie Avery, had better seasons, and Holt was a third-round pick.
Probable Keeper
Kevin Smith (7th Round) -- Smith played fairly well down the stretch, and this team can only get better, right? The most attractive thing about Smith is that he was the featured back once the Lions came to their senses, which is a valuable commodity these days.
Ronnie Brown remains a possibility. In a perfect world, we'd find that the Dolphins were saving Brown's newly repaired knee for next season, but the fact remains that Brown split carries with Ricky Williams, only once toting the rock more than 20 times. What's worse, the Dolphins were quite successful, leading me to believe that they aren't going to scrap the RBC approach anytime soon.
*It should be noted that I'm at my in-laws in Iowa, which means two things: 1) This time would probably be better spent socializing; and 2) I'm on an incredibly slow internet connection owing to the rather middle-of-nowhereness location that is the in-laws place.
MVP
Wes Welker -- It would be easy to say Peyton Manning, here, but that seemed a little too obvious. Plus, Manning was very unManning-like early on, and had he contributed a little more, then, my team's W/L record might be more impressive. Welker, on the other hand, was gold in our PPR league -- he had only one game during the fantasy season, both regular and post, with less than 6 catches -- and added 4 100-yd games in the final 7 and a TD in each of last two. Granted, I was out of the playoffs for the final two, but it was still nice to see him add TDs. For a team that looked like it had a great WR corps to start the year, this position was a real weakness. Welker was the lone bright spot.
LVP
Was there a bigger bust than Torry Holt? Players like Kevin Walter, DeSean Jackson, Ted Ginn, and even his own teammate, Donnie Avery, had better seasons, and Holt was a third-round pick.
Probable Keeper
Kevin Smith (7th Round) -- Smith played fairly well down the stretch, and this team can only get better, right? The most attractive thing about Smith is that he was the featured back once the Lions came to their senses, which is a valuable commodity these days.
Ronnie Brown remains a possibility. In a perfect world, we'd find that the Dolphins were saving Brown's newly repaired knee for next season, but the fact remains that Brown split carries with Ricky Williams, only once toting the rock more than 20 times. What's worse, the Dolphins were quite successful, leading me to believe that they aren't going to scrap the RBC approach anytime soon.
Tuesday, December 16, 2008
Saturday, December 13, 2008
national conference playoff matchup breakdown
West Meadows Molesters vs. Team VOTE 4 PEDRO
WMM pulled out probably one of the greatest, luckiest wins in this league's history. His team has been called a "house of cards" and "lucky", but he is just one game away from the superbowl. Team V4P got help from EVERYONE last week, even sub-average players, and posted the week high; a good thing in the first round of the playoffs. Can he do it again?
QB -
Cassel v. Rodgers - Counting on players getting their first starts earlier in the year, not many QB's have been better in the past 4 weeks. Cassel plays a little tougher pass DEF in the Oakland Raiders, making his matchup not so great. Rodgers gets a sweet matchup against a JAX team that has been mailing it lately and should have no problem posting a really nice score. Prediction - Cassel has a good game, but nothing close to those 70 point games he's had. Somewhere around 35 should be expected. Rodgers goes crazy; going for the bonus and 3 TDs on his way to 50+ point game.
RB -
Antonio Pittman / Reggie Bush v. DeAngelo Williams / Dominic Rhodes - if one matchup is going to be the difference between a loser and winner, this will be it. Bush has already played, posting an ugly 5.6 point game. And when your other starter is Antonio Pittman, you can't expect anything more than poor game. If he puts up more than Bush, it will be shock. On the other hand, no other RB has been as amazing as Williams the past 6 weeks, 6 straight weeks of 30 points. Yikes. Rhodes will split some carries, but might see more action than Addai. Prediction - The tag team of pittman and bush isn't exactly the Legion of Doom. 10 points combined is probably whats happens and is not how you win playoff games. Williams explodes once again versus a weak DEN team, 30+ points once again. Rhodes ends up getting more of the caries late in the game in a blowout, grabbing a late TD and topping 12 points.
WRs -
Ike Hilliard/Larry Fitzgerald/Benard Berrian - T.J. Houshmandzadeh/Deion Branch/Santana Moss - WMM traded for Fitzgerald earlier in the season; now he'll need him to carry a weak WR corp if he expects to keep playing next week. Fitzgerald has been quiet lately, his other WRs have been even more so. V4P got some unexpected results from some WRS who have been tough to have in your starting lineup. Prediction - Fitzgerald gets back to excellence this week with the bonus and a TD, but the other forget to show up. None one the Team V4P WRs have bad games, but none of them have great games - no bonuses and 1 TD between them.
TEs -
Donald Lee v. John Carlson - Donald Lee has benefited from being a red zone target, with tds in 3 of his 4 games. John Carlson has flashed some excellence in his rookie season. In a PPR league, he has been great with 6 and 8 catches in his last 2 games. He also plays a horrible RAMS DEF that should allow a td and some yards. Prediction - Both have good games, with a each getting a TD. Carlson will get 2 more catches and 24 more yards.
D/ST -
Arizona v. NE Pats - The 'Cards have been sorta of feast or famine this year with 6 games over 20 points 6 games under 10 points, including 3 games with negative points. This week they face AP, which is never nice, but also get to face a bad Tarvaris Jackson. New England has been overrated this year, with an aging defensive corp and just bad play. The last 4 games have been less than average, not scoring more than 5 points in any of the contests. But this week they face a Oakland team that is banged up and not exactly a juggernaut. Prediction - Neither of these teams have a dream matchup, but are facing QBs that give up some TOs and allow a few sacks. Lets say both of these squads top out at about 10 points apiece.
Ks -
Reed v. Longwell - For some reason, Reed plays best on the road, which is good for this week. He also plays the Ravens, who dont allow many TDs, also good for a kicker. Ryan "Longshanks" Longwell will be kicking indoors against a team that allows a lot of points. That adds up to make a sweet matchup. Prediction - Reed will be the bulk of the offense for the Steelers this week. 4 FGs and a xp will create his 2nd best week of the year. Longwell will be on the field this week - 3 FGs and 3 XPs sounds about right.
Final Prediction -
Team V4P has just enough sweet matchups, mostly Rodgers and Williams, to overcome any freak point blowups from the West Meadow team, who lacks even 1 player that can consistently be counted on for that HUGE game you need in the playoffs. Team V4P rides nice games from his QB and RBs, but neither team might go over 150 points total, and Pedro can expect to punch his ballot to the Championship Game. 145 - 119.
WMM pulled out probably one of the greatest, luckiest wins in this league's history. His team has been called a "house of cards" and "lucky", but he is just one game away from the superbowl. Team V4P got help from EVERYONE last week, even sub-average players, and posted the week high; a good thing in the first round of the playoffs. Can he do it again?
QB -
Cassel v. Rodgers - Counting on players getting their first starts earlier in the year, not many QB's have been better in the past 4 weeks. Cassel plays a little tougher pass DEF in the Oakland Raiders, making his matchup not so great. Rodgers gets a sweet matchup against a JAX team that has been mailing it lately and should have no problem posting a really nice score. Prediction - Cassel has a good game, but nothing close to those 70 point games he's had. Somewhere around 35 should be expected. Rodgers goes crazy; going for the bonus and 3 TDs on his way to 50+ point game.
RB -
Antonio Pittman / Reggie Bush v. DeAngelo Williams / Dominic Rhodes - if one matchup is going to be the difference between a loser and winner, this will be it. Bush has already played, posting an ugly 5.6 point game. And when your other starter is Antonio Pittman, you can't expect anything more than poor game. If he puts up more than Bush, it will be shock. On the other hand, no other RB has been as amazing as Williams the past 6 weeks, 6 straight weeks of 30 points. Yikes. Rhodes will split some carries, but might see more action than Addai. Prediction - The tag team of pittman and bush isn't exactly the Legion of Doom. 10 points combined is probably whats happens and is not how you win playoff games. Williams explodes once again versus a weak DEN team, 30+ points once again. Rhodes ends up getting more of the caries late in the game in a blowout, grabbing a late TD and topping 12 points.
WRs -
Ike Hilliard/Larry Fitzgerald/Benard Berrian - T.J. Houshmandzadeh/Deion Branch/Santana Moss - WMM traded for Fitzgerald earlier in the season; now he'll need him to carry a weak WR corp if he expects to keep playing next week. Fitzgerald has been quiet lately, his other WRs have been even more so. V4P got some unexpected results from some WRS who have been tough to have in your starting lineup. Prediction - Fitzgerald gets back to excellence this week with the bonus and a TD, but the other forget to show up. None one the Team V4P WRs have bad games, but none of them have great games - no bonuses and 1 TD between them.
TEs -
Donald Lee v. John Carlson - Donald Lee has benefited from being a red zone target, with tds in 3 of his 4 games. John Carlson has flashed some excellence in his rookie season. In a PPR league, he has been great with 6 and 8 catches in his last 2 games. He also plays a horrible RAMS DEF that should allow a td and some yards. Prediction - Both have good games, with a each getting a TD. Carlson will get 2 more catches and 24 more yards.
D/ST -
Arizona v. NE Pats - The 'Cards have been sorta of feast or famine this year with 6 games over 20 points 6 games under 10 points, including 3 games with negative points. This week they face AP, which is never nice, but also get to face a bad Tarvaris Jackson. New England has been overrated this year, with an aging defensive corp and just bad play. The last 4 games have been less than average, not scoring more than 5 points in any of the contests. But this week they face a Oakland team that is banged up and not exactly a juggernaut. Prediction - Neither of these teams have a dream matchup, but are facing QBs that give up some TOs and allow a few sacks. Lets say both of these squads top out at about 10 points apiece.
Ks -
Reed v. Longwell - For some reason, Reed plays best on the road, which is good for this week. He also plays the Ravens, who dont allow many TDs, also good for a kicker. Ryan "Longshanks" Longwell will be kicking indoors against a team that allows a lot of points. That adds up to make a sweet matchup. Prediction - Reed will be the bulk of the offense for the Steelers this week. 4 FGs and a xp will create his 2nd best week of the year. Longwell will be on the field this week - 3 FGs and 3 XPs sounds about right.
Final Prediction -
Team V4P has just enough sweet matchups, mostly Rodgers and Williams, to overcome any freak point blowups from the West Meadow team, who lacks even 1 player that can consistently be counted on for that HUGE game you need in the playoffs. Team V4P rides nice games from his QB and RBs, but neither team might go over 150 points total, and Pedro can expect to punch his ballot to the Championship Game. 145 - 119.
American Conference playoff matchup breakdown
#2 Avalon Park Assassins vs. #1 Wings of Pastrami
You figured that at least 1 of these team would be in the Conference Finals, and it cant be too surprising that both are fighting it out for a chance to go to the Super Bowl. WOP won the low-scoring, head to head in the regular season. But that was with a still healing Tony Romo and a healthy Marion Barber. Those roles are now reversed, but can APA find an other way to pull through? Lets see...
QB -
Romo vs. Garrard - After last weeks debacle, WOP just wants his QB to stay in the whole game. GB DEF's has not been great lately, but Garrard doesn't have many weapons and cant be expected to do much. Since coming back from injury, Romo has been hot and cold. Posting two games of 50+ points, but also two games of sub 20 points. He faces a pissed off NYG this week and the 'boys are the verge of self-destructing. Prediction - Garrard will be just less than average, throwing for a scoring and for less than 200 yards, but also an INT. Romo might have to will his team to a victory this week. He wont throw for 300 yards, but count on at least 2 TDs.
RBs -
Matt Forte / Maurice Jones-Drew v. Marion Barber / Chris Johnson. - Forte played already, posting a good score, but not great, which was expected against a weak NO DEF. MO Jones-Drew's ship has come in; fred taylor went on the IR this week and plays against a soft GB run DEF. If he doesn't get 20 carries and 5 catches, its will be disappointing. Will he or wont he? That is the big questions surrounding Marion Barber this week. Guts tells him to play, his body might so no. Whatever his choice, its a risk putting him in the lineup against a tough NYG DEF. Chris Johnson faces a HOU DEF that held him in check earlier in the season, but that was before he melted some faces throughout the year. Back to back 100+ games should be the norm for him. Prediction - I predict Forte will have low yardage and get a td, about 14.8 points. MJ DREW will blow up and 30+ total points, thanks to the bonus and 2 tds. Barber plays, but doesn't reach 10 carries or 10 points. Chris Johnson does what he do, going for 110 yards and 1 td.
WRs -
Randy Moss/Reggie Wayne/Steve Smith v. Brandon Marshall/Laveranues Coles/Steve Breaston - WOP's squad should be considered the best in the biz. Though a little inconsistent, each guy on this corp has the ability to blow up, no matter the defense. They have combined for 12 bonuses this year. In comparison, APA boasts a team with talent, but a little underachieving, tallying only 6 bonuses between the 3 players. Each WR plays with a QB that can get them the ball, but not usually enough to be dominating. Prediction - Wayne bounces back and Smith continues his hot streak as both grab the bonus and TDs against very weak DEFs. Moss gets slowed down and shutout of the end zone, but still get 5 catches for 57 yards. Marshall does the damage out of the 3, getting 80 yards and a TD. APA's other have average games, neither topping 70 yards or a TD.
TE -
Tony Gonzalez v. Owen Daniels - This position is the big separator - if Tony Gonzo can have another huge game compared to the average game expected from Daniels, it will a big step in APA's journey to a win. Gonzo plays a SD team that allows the most points to TE's, a great sign that he'll blow up. Daniels struggled as late, but had a nice game with Schuab back. TENN is average against TE's, which is the type of game you can expect from Daniels. Prediction - Gonzo goes Gonzo; expect a bonus and a TD grab. anything less would be uncivilized. Daniels will get his standard 55 yards from 5 catches. Anything more would be gravy.
D/ST
Indy v. Washington - At this writing, the WOPs are going with the Colts, who have posted back to back huge games, 35 and 40 points, and are facing a horrible Detroit Lions that actually do have a few weapons. With Bob Sanders back, the colts have been real nasty and stingy. The Redskins also face a weak offensive team in the CINCIN Bengals. They have never had a dominant game this season, but rarely get smoked. Consistent and average is what they are, which is not bad. Prediction - INDY D/ST comes back to earth a little, but still post a 20+ game with 2 ints and 3 sacks. Washington has their best game of the year, but since they don't get many TOs, a 15 point posting will be the ceiling.
K - Gostkowski v. Mare - The New England kicker sits on top the points ladder going into the last weeks of the season. 3 of the past 4 weeks, he has topped 10 points. Count on that again when facing a terrible Oakland team. Mare is facing a team that will allow him to get lots of kicking opportunities, but maybe not many FGs chances. Prediction - Gostkowski gets a few of each, just reaching 10 points. Mare goes a little more wild in a shootout, reaching 12 points.
FINAL PREDICTION - Both teams do better than last week and both show why they made it this far. WOPs dont get much from the QB spot, but the rest of the team shows up with 3 bonuses and multiple TDs, 4 more than last week. APA gets expected great showings from a few players, but a questionable stud RB and just an average D/ST are the difference. Final Score - 175 to 156
You figured that at least 1 of these team would be in the Conference Finals, and it cant be too surprising that both are fighting it out for a chance to go to the Super Bowl. WOP won the low-scoring, head to head in the regular season. But that was with a still healing Tony Romo and a healthy Marion Barber. Those roles are now reversed, but can APA find an other way to pull through? Lets see...
QB -
Romo vs. Garrard - After last weeks debacle, WOP just wants his QB to stay in the whole game. GB DEF's has not been great lately, but Garrard doesn't have many weapons and cant be expected to do much. Since coming back from injury, Romo has been hot and cold. Posting two games of 50+ points, but also two games of sub 20 points. He faces a pissed off NYG this week and the 'boys are the verge of self-destructing. Prediction - Garrard will be just less than average, throwing for a scoring and for less than 200 yards, but also an INT. Romo might have to will his team to a victory this week. He wont throw for 300 yards, but count on at least 2 TDs.
RBs -
Matt Forte / Maurice Jones-Drew v. Marion Barber / Chris Johnson. - Forte played already, posting a good score, but not great, which was expected against a weak NO DEF. MO Jones-Drew's ship has come in; fred taylor went on the IR this week and plays against a soft GB run DEF. If he doesn't get 20 carries and 5 catches, its will be disappointing. Will he or wont he? That is the big questions surrounding Marion Barber this week. Guts tells him to play, his body might so no. Whatever his choice, its a risk putting him in the lineup against a tough NYG DEF. Chris Johnson faces a HOU DEF that held him in check earlier in the season, but that was before he melted some faces throughout the year. Back to back 100+ games should be the norm for him. Prediction - I predict Forte will have low yardage and get a td, about 14.8 points. MJ DREW will blow up and 30+ total points, thanks to the bonus and 2 tds. Barber plays, but doesn't reach 10 carries or 10 points. Chris Johnson does what he do, going for 110 yards and 1 td.
WRs -
Randy Moss/Reggie Wayne/Steve Smith v. Brandon Marshall/Laveranues Coles/Steve Breaston - WOP's squad should be considered the best in the biz. Though a little inconsistent, each guy on this corp has the ability to blow up, no matter the defense. They have combined for 12 bonuses this year. In comparison, APA boasts a team with talent, but a little underachieving, tallying only 6 bonuses between the 3 players. Each WR plays with a QB that can get them the ball, but not usually enough to be dominating. Prediction - Wayne bounces back and Smith continues his hot streak as both grab the bonus and TDs against very weak DEFs. Moss gets slowed down and shutout of the end zone, but still get 5 catches for 57 yards. Marshall does the damage out of the 3, getting 80 yards and a TD. APA's other have average games, neither topping 70 yards or a TD.
TE -
Tony Gonzalez v. Owen Daniels - This position is the big separator - if Tony Gonzo can have another huge game compared to the average game expected from Daniels, it will a big step in APA's journey to a win. Gonzo plays a SD team that allows the most points to TE's, a great sign that he'll blow up. Daniels struggled as late, but had a nice game with Schuab back. TENN is average against TE's, which is the type of game you can expect from Daniels. Prediction - Gonzo goes Gonzo; expect a bonus and a TD grab. anything less would be uncivilized. Daniels will get his standard 55 yards from 5 catches. Anything more would be gravy.
D/ST
Indy v. Washington - At this writing, the WOPs are going with the Colts, who have posted back to back huge games, 35 and 40 points, and are facing a horrible Detroit Lions that actually do have a few weapons. With Bob Sanders back, the colts have been real nasty and stingy. The Redskins also face a weak offensive team in the CINCIN Bengals. They have never had a dominant game this season, but rarely get smoked. Consistent and average is what they are, which is not bad. Prediction - INDY D/ST comes back to earth a little, but still post a 20+ game with 2 ints and 3 sacks. Washington has their best game of the year, but since they don't get many TOs, a 15 point posting will be the ceiling.
K - Gostkowski v. Mare - The New England kicker sits on top the points ladder going into the last weeks of the season. 3 of the past 4 weeks, he has topped 10 points. Count on that again when facing a terrible Oakland team. Mare is facing a team that will allow him to get lots of kicking opportunities, but maybe not many FGs chances. Prediction - Gostkowski gets a few of each, just reaching 10 points. Mare goes a little more wild in a shootout, reaching 12 points.
FINAL PREDICTION - Both teams do better than last week and both show why they made it this far. WOPs dont get much from the QB spot, but the rest of the team shows up with 3 bonuses and multiple TDs, 4 more than last week. APA gets expected great showings from a few players, but a questionable stud RB and just an average D/ST are the difference. Final Score - 175 to 156
Friday, December 12, 2008
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