Week 12 Playoff Picture

The National Conference playoff picture continues to shift a little, as ND1 foes vie for the final playoff spot. If the playoffs started today, here's what we'd have:

American Conference:

1. Team Vote 4 Pedro (8-3) – In a matchup between the top teams in each conference (record-wise), the Pedros throttled the Armadillos to hang onto the #1 seed from the American Conference. Once again, the Pedros responded in a week when all three AD1 teams won. The Pedros can clinch the #1 seed with a win in one of their last two games. With the Ra-Tards on deck, that #1 seed could be had as soon as next week.
   
2. Fighting Cocks (7-4) – After pulling out a win despite scoring only 80 points in Week 10, the Cocks lost to the Pricks in Week 11. With Ronnie Brown out and Benson banged up, this team, like its players, is limping into the playoffs. With the division in hand, though, the #2 seed is secure and a shot at the #1 seed (and the 10-point advantage that goes with it) is still, technically, possible if the Cocks win out and the Pedros lose their remaining two games.
   
3. Avalon Park Assassins (7-4) – Nothing changes, here, as the Assassins continue to hold a 200-point lead over the next highest-scoring team. A shot at the #1 seed is still possible if the Assassins win out and the Pedros lose at least one of their last two.
   
4. The Legend of Bo (6-5) – A monster 236-point output all but ensures the LOBs will be the #4 seed from the American Conference, as this puts their point lead over the next closest team, the Alley Cats, at nearly 240. They still trail the Assassins by over 200 points and cannot win the division, so this playoff seed is pretty firm.
   

Outside looking in:

• Estelle Getty's Boobs (4-7) – The Boobs have won 2 straight, and while they aren't likely to catch the LOBs in the battle for the #4 seed, they have meaningful games against the WOPs and the Pricks remaining. They could factor into the National Conference's playoff seeding.
  
• Auburn Hills Alley Cats (1-10) – The Alley Cats failed to embrace the role as spoiler in a Week 11 loss to the WOPs. With two games remaining against teams who aren't concerned about wins and losses, the Alley Cats have nothing but their pride at stake. Avoiding a 1-win season might be the goal, now. Unfortunately, the loss guarantees the Alley Cats will be paying someone's entry fee next year.
  

These playoff spots are pretty much set. The Cocks and the Assassins both technically have a shot at the #1 seed, but the Pedros would have to lose both of their final games, as they hold the tiebreaker over both teams by sweeping the Assassins and winning the H2H matchup with the Cocks. Of course, the #3 and #4 spots are not guaranteed until after the final game, too, but neither the Assassins nor the LOBs look in danger of falling out of those spots. The bottom line is that all four of these teams are likely locked into the playoffs, with seedings still somewhat fluid.

National Conference:

1. Amesbury Lake Armadillos (8-3) – After losing to the Pedros in Week 11, the Armadillos need to win one of their last two games to clinch the division. The catch? They face the two highest scoring teams in the league in those last two weeks. However, there is no scenario that doesn't have the Armadillos into the playoffs based on record. So while the #1 seed is not secured, a playoff spot is.
   
2. Wings of Pastrami (7-4) – The WOPs didn't have an overwhelming scoring week, but did rack up their third straight win, putting themselves in great position to capture the division title and keeping the #1 seed within grasp. One win in their final two games wraps up the division. If they should finish with the same record as the Pricks, things get interesting, as the two split their H2H matchups and are separated by only 2 total points.
   
3. Floating Turtleheads (6-5) – Despite losing three straight, the Turtleheads hopes of a division title are still alive, mathematically, and with the division-leading Armadillos having two tough matchups remaining, there's reason to be hopeful. However, they face the current #1 seed from the American Conference next week (the Pedros), and they face the league's highest scoring team in the final week, so a 5-game losing streak isn't out of the question. If the Turtleheads stumble in these final weeks, a number of interesting tiebreak scenarios could present themselves.
   
4. Cottonwood Hills Pricks (5-6) – In a battle of male anatomy, the Pricks bested the Cocks to move closer to .500. More importantly, the Pricks overtook the Monsters in total score, jumping back into this playoff spot. For now. The Pricks lead the monsters by just 8.9 points.
   

Outside looking in:

• Afton Creek Monsters (4-7) – The Monsters lost any shot at the division with a loss to the Boobs in Week 11. What's worse is that their 150-point output was not enough to hold onto the #4 spot in the National Conference. They Monsters don't need to necessarily score a ton, and they don't even need to win in the final two weeks, they just need to score 9 or more points than their division mates.
  
• Reflection Ra-Tards (3-8) – The Ra-Tards could still spoil some playoff plans with games against the Pedros and LOBs remaining.
  

Amazingly, less than 9 points separates the three teams from the ND1. No team from the division has secured a playoff spot, and none has been eliminated yet, either. This is shaping up to be an intriguing race, with the focus as much on scores as on wins and losses.

Current Playoff Matchups – If they started today, here's how the games would look:

American Conference

• #1 Pedros (145.7 pts/gm) vs. #4 LOBs (148.5/gm) – Think the 10-pt advantage won't be important here?
  
• #2 Cocks (139.9/gm) vs. #3 Assassins (166.9/gm) – The higher seed would be the underdog in this one.
  

National Conference

• #1 Armadillos (138.9/gm) vs. #4 Pricks (143.4/gm) – Again, that advantage could come in handy.
  
• #2 WOPs (143.2/gm) vs. #3 Turtleheads (140.5/gm) – Another close matchup if you look at total points.
  

Keeper Candidates

Now that the trade deadline has passed, those players who are likely to be keepers are probably staying on rosters, so this seems like a good time to look at next year's potential keepers. Here's a list of the leading keeper candidates for each team:

Estelle Getty's Boobs: Ahmad Bradshaw (6^th)

Afton Creek Monsters: Dallas Clark (5^th) (Interesting note: The Monsters dropped Sidney Rice, currently the 12^th-ranked WR, who was a 19^th round selection.)

Wings of Pastrami: Steve Breaston (7^th – Assuming Boldin is traded in the off-season.)

Avalon Park Assassins: Matt Schaub (6^th)

Auburn Hills Alley Cats: Kellen Winslow (6^th – This roster is almost entirely new as a result of trades.)

Floating Turtleheads: Vincent Jackson (4^th)

Team Vote 4 Pedro: Matt Stafford (20^th)

Amesbury Lake Armadillos: Beanie Wells (10^th – FA)

Fighting Cocks: Cedric Benson (7^th)

Legend of Bo: LeSean McCoy (9^th – Particularly if Westbrook's contract isn't renewed.)

Cottonwood Hills Pricks: Rashard Mendenhall (10^th)

Reflection Ridge Ra-Tards: Mark Sanchez (14^th)

I've tried to be bold and only list one candidate per team. This should generate some discussion, I think. In my opinion, Pate will perhaps have the most difficult decision with Benson, Vernon Davis (14^th), and NYG's Steve Smith (16^th).

Week 11 Playoff Picture

Once again, there's been no change in the seeding, but the picture is now taking better shape and some races are heating up.

American Conference:

1. Team Vote 4 Pedro (7-3) – The Pedros used a big effort from the Ravens D to secure a W, snap a two-game skid, and find a spot atop the rankings. Their two division foes are still in the hunt, but the Pedros continue to fight them off
   
2. Fighting Cocks (7-3) – The Cocks wrapped up their division last, guaranteeing themselves a top-two seed and the 10-point first round advantage that goes along with it. Their Week 7 loss to the Pedros may have bigger implications than simply costing them the conference's top seed, though, as they are situating themselves to face the top-scoring Assassins in the first round of the playoffs.
   
3. Avalon Park Assassins (6-4) – The Assassins are fairly well entrenched in this spot if they cannot find a way to best the Pedros' record. (Team V4P swept the Assassins, so the Assassins need are technically more than just one game back of the division lead.) The Assassins have scored more than 250 points more than the next closest team in the league, let alone the division. While we technically can't guarantee a playoff spot based on points scored, this is about as sure a thing as a guantee.
   
4. The Legend of Bo (5-5) – After ripping off a three-game win streak, the LOBs have looked pretty mediocre in losing two straight and have fallen two games back of the division lead. They're still nearly 130 points better than the next closest team (the Alley Cats), so this spot is secure for now.
   

Outside looking in:

• Auburn Hills Alley Cats (1-9) – After getting off the schnide in Week 9, the Alley Cats did what they do best in Week 10, lost a close matchup despite a respectable score. They've passed the Boobs in overall scoring, though, and continue to be a tough out. With key games against all three ND1 foes remaining, they could continue to embrace the role of spoiler.
  
• Estelle Getty's Boobs (3-7) – The Boobs got a W in an uninspiring 117-87 victory in Week 10. However, the division is out of reach and they are about 210 points out of the last spot. Like the Alley Cats, the Boobs face the ND1 opponents in the last three games, giving them something to play for.
  

Once again, the seeding is unchanged. The interesting thing is the Alley Cats jumping over the Boobs in total points and the implications of the seedings and playoff matchups. The Cocks and Pedros are very evenly matched, as there is less than 25 total points difference between them (and both are 2-2 in their last four games). However, there's a significant difference between the current #3 and #4 teams. The #1 seed is, therefore, getting a big advantage in round one.

National Conference:

1. Amesbury Lake Armadillos (8-2) – The Armadillos responded to their second loss of the season in Week 9 with a nice win in Week 10 (courtesy of Manning's late-game heroics). Their magic number stands at 2, and if the Armadillos want to maintain the top seed, they need to rely on W's, as they split the H2H matchup with the Turtleheads and lead them by only 6 total points.
   
2. Wings of Pastrami (6-4) – The WOPs have ridden back-to-back big fantasy wins to the top of ND1 and now find themselves as the second highest scoring team in the league. The WOPs magic number is more or less 1, as they swept the Pricks and have a points lead over the Monsters (albeit a slim one: about 22 points).
   
3. Floating Turtleheads (6-4) – The Turtleheads have now fallen behind the Armadillos in both record and total points. With three games left, they likely need to win out to have any shot at the #1 seed. A poor showing against the Boobs in Week 10 didn't help matters.
   
4. Afton Creek Monsters (4-6) – The Monsters got roughed up by the Assassins in Week 10 but are still holding off the Pricks for this last spot. Their total points lead is now under 25, though, so this position is tenuous at best.
   

Outside looking in:

• Cottonwood Hills Pricks (4-6) – Thanks to the Ravens D feasting on a feeble Browns offense, the Pricks failed to keep pace with the division-leading WOPs. They did, however, close the gap between themselves and the Monsters and are very much in the thick of the playoff race.
  
• Reflection Ra-Tards (3-7) – The Ra-Tards become the second team mathematically eliminated from the playoffs based on record, and they trail the #4 Monsters by nearly 385 points. To make matters worse, they face the tough AD1 in their final games. Time to start focusing on next season's keepers.
  

The National Division has perhaps the most intriguing playoff race, as the Pricks and the Monsters battle for the final position. This has turned into a pretty balanced conference, as less than 50 total points separates the five teams still vying for playoff spots.

Week 9 Playoff Picture

There's been no change in the picture, yet, but things are still interesting. I've tried to capture the playoff race below.

American Conference:

1. Team Vote 4 Pedro (6-2) – The Pedros hold on to the #1 ranking for the second week in a row, despite an 88-point walloping at the hands of the Monsters.
   
2. Fighting Cocks (5-3) – The Cocks have lost two in a row, but haven't lost any ground in the standings. At this point, a 3-game division lead is looking fairly significant, making the Cocks a pretty sure bet to make the playoffs out of the weak AD2.
   
3. Avalon Park Assassins (5-3) – Despite sharing the same record, the Assassins hold onto this spot over the LOBs with a commanding 165+-point total-score advantage. Like the Cocks, this team would have to have a fairly major meltdown to miss out on the playoffs, yet they are still in the running for the top seed, back only one game of the Pedros. The Assassins could also slip to the 4 seed if they fall behind the LOBs, record-wise.
   
4. The Legend of Bo (5-3) – Also just one game back of the Pedros, the LOBs hold this spot by virtue of their 158-point lead over the Boobs. The LOBs, like the Assassins, are still in the running for the top and third seeds.
   

Outside looking in:

• Estelle Getty's Boobs (2-6) – A scoring correction gave the Boobs a heartbreaking loss this weekend, and they fell further behind the LOBs for the last playoff spot.
  
• Auburn Hills Alley Cats (0-8) – Amazingly still winless, the Alley Cats are the first team to be mathematically eliminated from the record-based playoff spots. The Cats would need to see a major uptick in scoring to keep their slim playoff hopes alive, but with three of their final five games coming against current division leaders, spoiler is probably a more realistic ambition.
  

The seeding is unchanged, and the four teams currently in aren't likely to change, but things are starting to get interesting in the American Conference. Both the Assassins and the LOBs remain hot on the heels of the Pedros in the battle for AD1. A misstep by any of these teams likely results in a shuffling of playoff seeds. The Cocks are pretty secure in the #2 seed, but the 1, 3, and 4 seeds are still very much unsettled.

National Conference:

1. Amesbury Lake Armadillos (7-1) – The Armadillos sat in the 3 seed for a couple of days this week, until a scoring correction gave them a W and pushed them ahead of the Turtleheads. Their division lead remains at 1.
   
2. Wings of Pastrami (4-4) – The WOPs, losers of 2 straight, still sit atop the only division without a winning team. This position is precarious, though, as they lead by 1 over their division mates.
   
3. Floating Turtleheads (6-2) – The Turtle heads keep applying pressure to the Armadillos, remaining within a game. (They actually have a 23-point advantage in total score.) The Turtle heads have won 3 straight, and got a taste of first place before the Armadillos received their miraculous post-week win.
   
4. Afton Creek Monsters (3-5) – After scoring nearly 200 points last week, the Monsters padded their scoring lead over the Pricks and moved within 1 of the division-leading WOPs.
   

Outside looking in:

• Cottonwood Hills Pricks (3-5) – Despite trailing the Monsters by 87 total points, the Pricks are still very much in the thick of things. An 87-point deficit is not yet daunting, with five games left in the regular season, and the Pricks trail the WOPs by only 1 game in the division.
  
• Reflection Ra-Tards (2-6) – The Ra-Tards tasted victory again, but at this point they need to pray for an epic meltdown from the Armadillos, as they trail the next lowest-scoring team (the WOPs) by nearly 184 points. If that meltdown is going to happen, it needs to happen this week, as one more win by the Armadillos eliminates the Ra-Tards from the record-based playoff spot.
  

The National Division 1 remains interesting. Currently the WOPs are the 2 seed from the National Conference by way of their division 1 lead, but if they end in a three-way tie within their division, they might miss out on the playoffs, as they trail both the Monsters and the Pricks in total score. The difference is small, though (only about 100 points behind the Monsters and 16 behind the Pricks), so there's plenty of time to change this. To avoid any scare, though, the WOPs need to keep putting up W's.