lets take some time and go through the 4 playoff games...
West Meadows Molesters vs. Huey Ramas
The Molesters have the better record (9-4 to 7-6) but Huey Ramas scored 100+ more points in the regular season. The Molesters hold a 2-0 advantage in head to head matchups during the regular season but can they make it 3-0?
QB -
Cassel v. Cutler - both face a weak pass defense, but cassel holds the juicier matchup, at least on paper, as Seahawks have allowed the most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks the past five weeks and has the better weapons. And before last week, Cassel was making people consider trading Tom Brady (idiots). Cutler has been inconsistent but has shown his ability to come through with huge games. KC is little better against the pass, but not much. Prediction - Cassel comes through with a slighty better game.
RBs -
Bush / McFadden v. Thomas Jones / SJAX - Bush is still a little rusty and Pierre Thomas has shown he is worthy of stealing some touches. McFadden has 1 good game, but is facing a SD Def that has been less than stellar all year. Thomas Jones was acquired through a late season trade and has been straight cash homey, with 100 yards in 3 of the past 4 games and 6 tds. SJAX has been hurt a lot, but with 21 carries last week, one would think he can continue to do his thing. Prediction - Jones / SJAX both come through with 20+ point games.
WRs -
B. Berrian / Larry Fitzgerald / Harry Douglas v. Roddy White / Amani Toomer / Ted Ginn Jr. - Interesting matchups here; both teams have a stud #1 WR, both have a WR who have been feast of famine all year (berrian / ginn) and both have someone tied to the success of Matt Ryan. The wild card here is "Not A" Toomer. With Burress out for the season, Eli might look to solidify that connection and look his way a lot. Molesters WRs may the better matchups, but Ramas' stronger WR corp will get the looks and probably more points.
TE -
Donald Lee v. Bo Scaife - Neither one of these guys can be considered top flight TE, but scaife at least had some big games. Matchups are pretty neutral and neither are top options for their QB. Prediction - neither get the bonus, but Scaife gets a TD
D/ST
ARI v. TENN - Which one faces the worse QB? Hard to say. But the Titans have been strong all year long. And home against Ken Dorsey? Yikes. Prediction - Titans come through with a near shutout, only allowing a 2nd half FG and grab 30 points.
K -
Elam v. Bironas - Both have been solid all year. Elam plays in a dome in what expects to be a shootout. Bironas might have some tricky winds on the road and the Titans might score some TDs. Prediction - Both grab double digits, but Elam has a season high.
FINAL PREDICTION - The Molesters get the coveted 10 point bonus. It wont matter. Ramas has dropped two 200+ games in the past 4 weeks. He wont get there this week, but his matchups are favorable and his players are consistent enough to take advantage. Final Score - 168 to 140
Hoof Hearted v. Avalon Park Assassins
Same record. 12 points separating them. stud players in multiple positions. last 2 undefeated teams. Its too bad this matchup happens in the 1st round as it probably could be the championship if they were in different conferences. One of these team will have a very disappointing, very short playoff run.
QB -
Romo v. Eli Manning - Romo has lead many a team to great records this year. One of the top QBs in the game, it not unreasonable to expect 300 yards and a few TDs. But this matchup couldn't come at a worse time. Versus a monster PITT Def? on the road? Without Barber? Expecting more than 30 points could be too much. On the flip side, little brother eli has out performed big bother lately, proving better than his mid-season play of game manager. Hoof Hearted could really use a big game again, or at least not worse than the last time he faced Philly. Prediction - Both QBs play good, but nothing crazy. "Even Steven" points-wise.
RBs -
Lynch / Peterson v. Benson / Johnson - If Hoof Hearted is going to beat a tough Assassins, it will come via the RBs. Lynch was average last time he faced Miami but has played better as of late. The matchup of the week is AP versus Detroit. Peterson could blow up for 50+ points - Hoof Hearted will need a big day from AP. He can't afford to mess this up. Benson is an interesting matchup versus a INDY DEF who is easy to run, though Bob Sanders is back. Chris Johnson, great in the beginning, average in the middle, faces an average CLEV def. The potential for a big game is there. Prediction - Both Lynch and AP do what they do and run wild. Benson gets a TD but less than glorious yards. Johnson makes more sparks as potential ROY and grabs 100+ yards but it wont be enough to keep up with AP.
WRs -
Terrell Owens / Greg Jennings / Hines Ward v. Brandon Marshall / Laveranues Coles / Steve Breaston - TO, Jennings and Ward have the potential to go for 3 for 3 on the bonus any given week. Except maybe this week. Tough of matchups for all 3. If anyone of them can get a TD, it would be real nice. Marshall, Coles and Breaston have as much ceiling as the other WR corp, maybe just not the track record. The highlight here is the matchups - all face teams with decent PASS DEF, but horrible team that you can gather yards and TDs in a hurry. Prediction - If it wasnt for the matchups, "THE T.O. GANG" could do some damage. But this week, Assassins can expect some big games.
TEs -
Witten v. Gonzo - Anything less than a stellar game for either TE is sad news. Both have the ability to grab big points, but facing each other, they could just cancel each other out. Prediction - the matchup for witten is tough but could be nice if Romo needs to dump the ball short. Gonzo should win the battle of the points, but not by much.
D/ST -
Cowboys v. Jets - Cowboys will have their hands full with a PITT team on the road. But bad weather could produce some TOs. Jets have been one of the surprises this year, but had a relapse of sorts versus the Broncos in the rain. This week, all they need to do is focus on stopping Gore. Prediction - Neither dominate, but the Cowboys get a few fumbles, giving them the edge.
Ks -
Crosby v. Gould - At home, Crosby has been nice and consistent. Gould is on an offense that has been a little less than. Prediction - Crosby gets a few extra points plus the coveted FGs, making for a double digit day.
FINAL PREDICTION - The game of the week will produce a loser that will not be happy to be leaving after the first round. Hoof Hearted might have the best matchups during the first round. And faces a team with some of the toughest. Hoof Hearted will avenge a regular season loss and move forward. Final Score - 188 to 135
Bradford Brawlers versus Team VOTE 4 PEDRO
Ahhh...it was just last week when TV4P pulled out a squeaker of a victory, which made them 2-0 versus the Brawlers. Pedro has had 2 rough weeks going into the playoffs, posting scores of 111 and 115. Brawlers has been just as consistent; 2 scores of 130+, right after 2 scores of sub 90 points. Who will turn it on for the playoffs?
QBs -
Brees v. Rodgers - It well documented what Brees does for a team; when he is on, its simply awesome. Rodgers has been consistent as above average, regularly posting scores in the 30's and higher. Both have matchups that could be really nice, but...Prediction - Brees dares teams to turn the game into a shootout. In a dome, its tough to not expect Brees to grab 50 points. Rodgers will be good, but Brees will be awesome.
RBs -
Grant / Peyton Hillis v. DeAngelo Williams / Larry Johnson - Grant was the poster child of bust earlier this season. he has been okay recently, but injuries take away any real upside. Hillis has been the poster child of late season pick up wunderkin. Both have matchups that are nice. Every week, DeAngelo was supposed to be replaced. Hasn't happened yet, and wont happen the rest of the season as he has scored 30+ for 4 weeks in a row. When LJ has played, he has actually been okay. When he played Denver last time, he blew up. Could it happen again? Prediction - Williams and LJ are going to somehow combine for 4 TDs. Hillis will drop off, but not as bad as Grant. Not good news for the Brawlers.
WRs -
Calvin Johnson / Davone Bess / Lee Evans v. T.J. Houshmandzadeh / Deion Branch / Santana Moss - Brawlers corp represents some young talent that might be twice as good if they had a decent QB throwing to them. Bess has been great PPR league pickup for this late in the season. CJ might have rough go but is TOO good to completely shut down. Evans is back and forth and frustrates owners with who shows up. Team V4P would have been in good shape in this was 2 years ago. Now? All these WRs are in bad situations, or worse, hurt, and cant be expected to bring much to the table. Prediction - Megatron and company do some good. Luckily, the other WR corps doesn't do much at all.
TEs -
Dallas Clark v. John Carlson - Clark has been in mini slump this year. Carlson has taken some rookie lumps this year, but has shown some great talent too. He blew up last week against the cowboys and Hassleback might look to him again as his new security. Prediction - Clark will get a few catches and a few yards. Nothing special. Carlson should get his 2nd awesome game as a rookie, though it will mostly come at garbage time. But who cares when it comes, as long as it counts.
D/ST -
Broncos v. Chargers - Denver has been plagued by injuries to their main men and have been less than average all year. The Chargers could play the same card, but have been far more disappointing. Drafted as the 1st D/ST then dropped and picked up late, SD has the talent. And this week they face OAK. Which could pay dividends. Prediction - DEN faces a KC team that killed them last time. SD gets an Oakland squad that has played better as of late. Neither will do great, but DEN might not get past 5 points.
Ks -
Brown v. Longwell - Brown seems to get a few chances every game, regardless of opponent. Having AP on your team, gets you at least close to the endzone each drive and Longwell gets to kick in a dome against a horrible team. Guess who scores more this game? Predicition - Brown will get 10 points. AP wont score all the TDs, so Longwell will have more XPs than FGs and will still get double digits and then some.
FINAL PREDICTION - This battle is going to be a close one. Both have good players with good matchups. Both can expect decent overall scores and need better than average games from palyers who havent done much lately (Clark and Deion Branch) The difference will be Brees. If Brees does throws down his usual 50+ point game, it will be too much for TV4P. Final Score - 155 to 147
Bourne Ulceration versus Wings of Pastrami -
This matchup will result in some nice bragging rights for a good 9 months. WOP has been hotter than a pistol, entering the playoffs on a 8 week win streak and the 2nd highest scoring team in the league. The BU's come into the Bid Dance as the only sub .500 team, but ride a wave of 2 impressive weeks of team high scores (followed by a season low) Can the BU's create another perfect storm of scores and upset the WOP's?
QBs -
Frerotte versus Peyton Manning - the WOP's have ridden the Gus Bus a few times this year with average results. Which is what you have to expect, any against a lowly Lions team. Why pass when you can run with AP? That will probably be the case this week too. Manning, as a 1st round pick, has been disappointing. But the regular season doesn't matter and his matchups couldn't be better. A 60 point game (something Peyton hasn't done all year) is not out of reach. BU needs a big one. Prediction - Gus Frerotte doesn't throw in th 2nd half and garners a 23 point game. Manning shows why he is still the best, getting 55 points in an INDY romp.
RBs -
Matt Forte / Steve Slaton v. Lendale White / Portis - The combo of Forte/Slaton has been rookie gold, catapulting the WOPs to the top this year. Both have been strong of late and are true #1 backs on their respective teams. And both face some of the worse rushing DEFs this week in GB and JAX. Expect good things. When White and Portis are good, they are good. In other words, both have the ability to get TDs and 30 point games. The only problem now is that Portis has been hurt the past few weeks and faces a nasty BALT def. And when Lendale isn't eating twinkies, he has been in the end zone, especially last week. But this week, the Titans might lean more on Chris Johnson and leave LenDale on the sidelines with some leftovers. Prediction – Forte and Slaton both run wild and grab the bonus, 4 catches each and a TD each. White gets enough to make him “startable” but plays 2nd fiddle to CJ. Portis toughs it out and gets a TD, but less than 60 yards total.
WRs –
Randy Moss/Reggie Wayne/Steve Smith v. Wes Welker/Lance Moore/Dwayne Bowe - Moss, Wayne and Smith are top 10 WRs and each week have the potential to melt their opponents face off. Their matchups range from awesome to just okay. Each should be get their standard 15 points and at least 1 of them should dominate. Welker and friends have been great for a PPR and each have had streaks of goodness this year. But all 3 of them are coming of poor showings last week. Moderate rebounds should be in the card this week though. Prediction - Moss and Wayne grab the WR headlines of the week, getting the bonus and 3 TDs between them. Smith wont get shutout, but wont do what he did last time against the TAMPA D/ST. Welker can't shake the cobwebs from getting smoked last week, but still Gets 6 catches for 55 yards. Moore ends his streak of TDs but get some good targets. Bowe's outcome depends on if Champ B plays. I say he does and shuts Bowe down.
TEs -
Dustin Keller v. Tony Scheffler - Keller qualifies as someone who is peaking at the best time possible, going from dud to stud just in time for the playoffs. Though SF is tough against TEs, Keller will get a lot of targets since Farve wants to makeout with him and have his babies every week. Or at least it seems that way. Scheffler seems to showup and disappear at random times. He stunk last time he faced KC, but lately, TEs have had some good success. Predication - Keller finds a way to have a decent game; 50 + yards but no TDs. Scheffler decides to play this time and creates a nice day for himself, finding the endzone and 70 yards.
D/ST -
Indy v. TB - The Colts have been the victim of missing Bob Sanders. Oh, and not being that great anyways. Getting Sanders back and facing a horrible CINCIN team will help a whole lot. Tampa has been dominate all year long, rarely not getting a TO or letting in a bunch of points. Prediction - Indy plays better than their season average an sack Fitzpatrick 4 times and get a fumble on thier way to 20 point day. Tampa slows down both DeAngelo and Steve Smith but dont generate the TOs like usual. But another 20+ day is managable.
K's -
Gostkowski v. Rackers - Not as awesome as last year, Gostkowski still gets a lot of opps, but isnt trusted still to go for any 50 yarders. Against Seattle, he might get more XPs than FGs but still..cmon...he'll get a lot of points. Rackers has been great and versus St Louis he might get his season high. Prediction - Gostowski gets on the field for 6 kicks, bu 4 will be for XPs. Rackers will boot his way to a 15 point day.
FINAL PREDICTION - The WOPs will not get high points from their non-QB position, something scary for a league that places emphasis on that spot. And playing Manning is equally as scary. But every other player on the WOP's should outscore their counterpart on the BU's team. Player bonuses and the #1 seed bonus will be too much for an upset. Final Score - 172 to 135
Thursday, December 4, 2008
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5 comments:
First of all, SWEET. Very nice analysis (although I wish you'd have split it into individual posts for each matchup to make commenting easier).
My comments for each matchup:
WMM vs. HR
News is that SJax is going to carry even more of the load this week, so I like that combo even more. McFadden has already played at the time I write this, and he laid an egg. It's starting to look bad for WMM. (The house of cards goes tumbling down.)
AP Assassins vs. HH
Has anyone checked the weather in GB? That could factor into the matchup with Jennings and Crosby going for HH. If there's swirling winds, it could affect both players. This game is unlikely to be decided by the kicking matchup, but something to consider. (Can you tell Favre torpedoed me in Lambou last year?)
Also, is there a team that's hotter than HH right now? With three straight impressive weeks, this team is putting that little mid-season skid far behind them. Your team has the winning streak, but HH has been putting up big scores lately.
BB vs. TV4P
How hilarious is this defensive matchup? Of course, in hindsight, the SD play worked out great, but it's sad that these are the starting D/ST for playoff teams. SD's success proves, once again, that fantasy success is all about the matchups.
WOP vs. BU
My RB matchups are brutal, while yours are sugary sweet. I'm waiting on word from the judge regarding MIN's Williams Brothers Who Are Not Actually Brothers. If they don't play, there's a chance I start Smith. In place of who? I have no idea.
As for WR, you forgot to mention that Wayne and Manning are connected, thus negating any real benefit either might see. This is probably worse for me, as that's the one matchup where I have a real edge. Plus, it'd be more likely for Wayne to get the bonus without Manning getting it than vice versa. If there were ever a time I wish Harrison would have a revival...
Bottom line, I can't really argue with your prediction other than to say you might be a little generous, in my favor, with your point spread. This matchup could get ugly.
Overall:
There's still time for some lineup changes, but I love the breakdown. I think there's two really intriguing matchups: one in each conference. APA vs. HH and BB vs. TV4P. As you said, it's a shame the American Conference has to knock each other around, but this should put our best against their best, and if I can't win the title or finish in the money, I'm at least going to cheer for my Conference. (It helps that all of the owners in the National Conference are scumbags. That's right, NC, I said it.)
if you were curious how I got the point totals, here is what I assisgned each player
WOP
Gus Frerotte - 20
Matt Forte - 32
Steve Slaton - 31
Randy Moss - 25
Reggie Wayne - 12
Steve Smith - 10
Dustin Keller - 7
Colts D/ST - 20
Stephen Gostkowski - 10
Patriots Coach - 5
BU
Peyton Manning - 51
LenDale White - 10
Clinton Portis - 9
Wes Welker - 11
Lance Moore - 6
Dwayne Bowe - 3
Tony Scheffler - 15
Buccaneers D/ST - 12
Neil Rackers - 15
Ten HC - 5
Well, I think having Manning get 51 with Wayne only getting 12 would be a HUGE victory for me. Plus, you forgot to add in the 10-point bonus for you.
I actually think Moore and Bowe will be a little better while Scheffler will be a little worse than your predictions.
a few comments -
Now you know why I didnt want to face Hoof Hearted this week (or any week). His team has players that can simply blow up given a nice matchup. He has many explosive players. My team has ben consistent (never over 190, under 120 only once) - his team can bust it open, 5 times over 150. H e ismy pick to win it all.
Really only knowing what you tell me about your brother, I had a thought as he i someone who throws video game controllers - what is the over/under on the number of times your brother curses this Sunday?
Jana told me I better win the whole thing, given the time I've spent in fantasy land this season. Now I know what it must have felt like with your Jana last season as you were on the cups of greatness.
If someone from the NC wins, I'll be pissed and will refer to their victory as lucky and weak.
So the only game you were correct on was yours! I hate gary Block! Who invited this guy I am now 0-3 against him.. Oh wait I got him in here. damn the man
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